Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 3

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Académica Coimbra

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.05	2.98
	2.45	3.1	3.14
	2.38	3.09	3.07	Watch
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.41	3.34	2.82
	2.36	2.83	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.71)	3.07 ↑ (2.88)	2.97 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
39.1%

Draw
30%

Académica Coimbra
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

31.7%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

31.4%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Belenenses's performance.

Académica Coimbra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Belenenses that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (+4%)

Belenenses - Académica Coimbra Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Oliveira G. (G) 14. Afonso A. 27. Barros E. 66. Cesinha 31. David Rebelo 17. Horta Leitao D. 2. Machado J. 21. Morgado T. (C) 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A. 9. Souza E.	98. Alves C. (G) 21. Candeias D. 18. Cuba 11. Farias E. 15. Kaka 17. Marcos Paulo 6. Montez A. 4. Silva G. 5. Silva L. (C) 93. Souza B. 3. Teixeira R.
Substitutes
23. Bruninho 13. Cuca 7. Eduardo W. 89. Gastao J. 15. Lucas J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 10. Sambu M. 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.	2. Baixinho M. 28. Cascavel 8. Jesus P. 49. Joao Pedro 1. Macedo N. (G) 20. Sinisterra J. 7. Tiago Andre 14. Triana C. 19. Xavier

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Souza E. ⚽,
22', 1 - 1, Souza B. ⚽, Silva L. (A),
34', 2 - 1, Souza E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 2 - 2, Kaka ⚽,
54', Silva G. 🟨,
62', Morgado T. ↓, Cuca ↑,
62', David Rebelo ↓, Bruninho ↑,
64', Cuba ↓, Triana C. ↑,
67', 3 - 2, Horta Leitao D. ⚽, Afonso A. (A),
71', Candeias D. ↓, Jesus P. ↑,
71', Montez A. ↓, Cascavel ↑,
80', Afonso A. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
81', Souza E. ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
83', Marcos Paulo ↓, Xavier ↑,
90', Cuca 🟨,
90+2', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Teixeira J. ↑,
90+5', Valente A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 0.

Belenenses has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Académica is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Belenenses may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Belenenses won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
15.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Belenenses - Trofense	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Caldas - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLWW
- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
06.02.26	Académica Coimbra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Académica Coimbra - Amora	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Atlético CP - Académica Coimbra	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	1:1
13.09.25	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	4:1
25.01.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	0:0
27.10.24	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	1:0
18.12.22	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	1:1
20.08.22	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	2:0

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