Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 14

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Mafra

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.5	4.75
	1.63	3.94	5.37
	1.61	3.82	5.38	Watch
	1.62	3.6	4.75
	1.65	3.71	5.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.62)	3.71 ↓ (3.84)	5.08 ↑ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
56.9%

Draw
24.9%

Mafra
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

24.2%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

24.6%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Belenenses - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Oliveira G. (G) 22. Bandarra M. 39. Pinto A. 4. Nuno Tomas 15. Lucas J. 20. Paulo D. 21. Morgado T. (C) 11. Duda 17. Horta Leitao D. 23. Bruninho 89. Gastao J.	1. Lemos F. (G) 52. Xico 2. Camara M. 3. Alves K. 5. Beni D. 90. Moreira R. 46. Sambu B. (C) 85. Neves L. 7. Matos R. 19. Iheanacho S. 9. Niang M.
Substitutes
13. Cuca 31. David Rebelo 53. Dias B. 7. Eduardo W. 77. Jansonas R. 2. Machado J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.	62. Djebate I. 10. Fati E. 66. Ferreira J. 6. Pinto R. 27. Precatado J. 4. Queta M. 13. Raposo C. 33. Silva P. (G) 96. So S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Moreira R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
52', Matos R. 🟨,
55', 1 - 0, Horta Leitao D. ⚽,
61', Nuno Tomas ↓, Teixeira J. ↑,
62', Morgado T. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
62', 2 - 0, Bruninho ⚽,
67', Duda ↓, Jansonas R. ↑,
68', Bandarra M. ↓, David Rebelo ↑,
71', Sambu B. ↓, Pinto R. ↑,
72', Moreira R. ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
83', Niang M. ↓, So S. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Pinto R. ⚽,
90+5', 3 - 1, Gastao J. ⚽,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

Belenenses has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mafra is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Belenenses is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Belenenses won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
10.05.26	Varzim - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Belenenses - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Amarante - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Belenenses - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTTLT
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
09.05.26	Mafra - Académica Coimbra	3:3 ✺
03.05.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Mafra	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Mafra - Trofense	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Mafra - Amarante	1:4 ✺
11.04.26	Varzim - Mafra	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
22.03.26	Mafra - Belenenses	1:4
09.11.25	Belenenses - Mafra	2:1
09.08.25	Mafra - Belenenses	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
02.02.24	Mafra - Belenenses	1:1
26.08.23	Belenenses - Mafra	1:1

Belenenses - Mafra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide