Match Info

NPL South Australia - Round 21

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Regency Park (Adelaide)


	Croydon		Sturt Lions

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.10	3.75	2.75
	1.9	3.85	3.05
	2.14	3.97	2.91
	1.93	4.07	3.26
	2.1	3.7	2.85
	1.91	3.72	3.24	Watch
	1.92	3.9	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.28)	3.85 ↑ (3.55)	3.02 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Croydon
45.9%

Draw
23.8%

Sturt Lions
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

25.1%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

25.2%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Croydon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Croydon's performance.

Sturt Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sturt Lions might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Croydon than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Croydon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturt Lions than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sturt Lions could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Croydon - Sturt Lions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL South Australia (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Croydon won 4.

In recent matches, Croydon has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sturt Lions is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Croydon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Croydon could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Croydon won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Croydon won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Croydon FC Australia
Australian NPL South Australian
01.08.26	FK Beograd - Croydon	4:3 ✺
25.07.26	Croydon - Campbelltown City	2:2 ✺
18.07.26	Adelaide City - Croydon	2:2 ✺
03.07.26	Adelaide Comets - Croydon	1:4 ✺
26.06.26	Croydon - Adelaide United U23	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LTTWW
- Sturt Lions
Australian NPL South Australian
25.07.26	Adelaide United U23 - Sturt Lions	2:3 ✺
18.07.26	West Adelaide - Sturt Lions	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	Sturt Lions - Playford City Patriots	1:0 ✺
26.06.26	West Torrens Birkalla - Sturt Lions	4:1 ✺
20.06.26	Sturt Lions - Para Hills Knights	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL South Australian
16.05.26	Sturt Lions - Croydon	0:2
20.05.23	Sturt Lions - Croydon	1:1
24.02.23	Croydon - Sturt Lions	5:2
09.07.22	Croydon - Sturt Lions	2:1
09.04.22	Sturt Lions - Croydon	0:4
10.07.21	Sturt Lions - Croydon	1:1
10.04.21	Croydon - Sturt Lions	1:2

Croydon - Sturt Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide