Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification - Final

Date: 28 August 2024, Wednesday

Location: Stadion Rajko Mitić (Belgrade)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade		Bodø Glimt

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.9	3.3
	2	3.75	3.4
	1.95	3.9	3.4
	2.06	3.95	3.51
	1.96	4.01	3.45	Watch
	2	3.6	3.1
	1.95	4.01	3.68
	1.95	3.9	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.33)	3.88 ↑ (3.65)	3.41 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
47.8%

Draw
24.4%

Bodø Glimt
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

26.3%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

26.4%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's performance.

Bodø Glimt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crvena Zvezda Belgrade that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bodø Glimt than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.5%	9.8%	6.8%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Bodø Glimt Predictions

Users Predictions: 130 users predict this event. Crvena Zvezda will win (votes: 110 - 84.6%). Bodø Glimt will win (votes: 8 - 6.2%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 9.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crvena Zvezda: 78.4% – 90.8%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ilic M. (G) 70. Mimovic O. 5. Spajic U. (C) 24. Djiga N. 66. Seol Young-Woo 21. Elsnik T. 6. Hwang In-Beom 27. Milson 4. Ivanic M. 14. Olayinka P. 17. Bruno Duarte	12. Haikin N. (G) 20. Sjovold F. 6. Gundersen J. 4. Bjortuft O. L. 15. Bjorkan F. 7. Berg P. 26. Evjen H. 19. Fet S. 25. Maatta I. 9. Hogh K. 23. Hauge J. (C)
Substitutes
22. Dalcio 33. Drkusic V. 77. Gutesa I. (G) 32. Ilic L. 8. Kanga G. 10. Katai A. 25. Lekovic S. 9. Ndiaye C. 73. Prutsev E. 19. Puma 23. Rodic M. 7. Sljivic J.	8. Auklend S. 21. Helmersen A. 28. Kapskarmo O. 1. Lund J. (G) 94. Mikkelsen A. 18. Moe B. 2. Nielsen V. 14. Saltnes U. 30. Sorensen A. 27. Sorli S. 29. Tomic M. 77. Zinckernagel P.
Coaches
Milojevic V.	Knutsen K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Bruno Duarte (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Elsnik T. 🟨,
59', 2 - 0, Spajic U. ⚽, Elsnik T. (A),
61', Sjovold F. 🟨,
62', Milson ↓, Puma ↑,
66', Hogh K. ↓, Zinckernagel P. ↑,
72', Olayinka P. ↓, Ndiaye C. ↑,
72', Bruno Duarte ↓, Dalcio ↑,
74', Fet S. ↓, Saltnes U. ↑,
86', Evjen H. ↓, Auklend S. ↑,
86', Ivanic M. ↓, Ilic L. ↑,
86', Maatta I. ↓, Helmersen A. ↑,
86', Bjortuft O. L. ↓, Moe B. ↑,
87', Puma 🟨,
90+5', Ivanic M. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Crvena Zvezda is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bodø Glimt is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Bodø Glimt could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Crvena Zvezda will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Crvena Zvezda: Degenek M. (Heel Injury) Lucic V. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bodø Glimt: Elabdellaoui O. (Injury) Skeide S. (Knee Injury) Vetti G. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Crvena Zvezda: Glazer O. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bodø Glimt: Bassi D. (Thigh Injury) Moe B. (Muscle Injury) Wembangomo B. (Muscle Injury) Zugelj N. (Muscle Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Crvena Zvezda won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
UEFA Champions League
20.08.24	Bodø Glimt - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	2:1 ✺
Serbian Superliga
15.08.24	Čukarički - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:4 ✺
10.08.24	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Novi Pazar	4:1 ✺
03.08.24	Tekstilac Odžaci - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:4 ✺
27.07.24	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Mladost Lučani	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWWWT
- Bodø Glimt
Norwegian Eliteserien
24.08.24	Bodø Glimt - Sarpsborg 08	6:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.08.24	Bodø Glimt - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	2:1 ✺
13.08.24	Bodø Glimt - Jagiellonia Białystok	4:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
10.08.24	Viking Stavanger - Bodø Glimt	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Bodø Glimt	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
20.08.24	Bodø Glimt - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	2:1

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