Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 6

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: George Andrews Reserve (Melbourne)


	Dandenong Thunder		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.55	2.82	Watch
	2.12	3.79	3.05
	2.15	4.12	2.77	Watch
	2.05	3.5	2.9
	2.12	3.83	2.98	Watch
	3.2	3.6	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (3.61)	3.73 ↓ (3.98)	2.75 ↑ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dandenong Thunder
40.9%

Draw
25.1%

South Melbourne
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

23.1%

51.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

22.5%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dandenong Thunder has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dandenong Thunder's performance.

South Melbourne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and South Melbourne might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dandenong Thunder than the current prediction. (-16.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dandenong Thunder that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (+18.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that South Melbourne could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
58', 1 - 0, ⚽,
60', 2 - 0, ⚽,
89', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dandenong Thunder won 2.

Dandenong Thunder has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

South Melbourne is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Dandenong Thunder may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Dandenong Thunder won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 13:36. (average 0.8:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Dandenong Thunder won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 1:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dandenong Thunder
Australian NPL Victoria
13.03.26	Hume City - Dandenong Thunder	3:1 ✺
07.03.26	Dandenong Thunder - Avondale	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - Dandenong Thunder	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Dandenong Thunder - Heidelberg United	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Dandenong Thunder - Melbourne City Youth	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT
- South Melbourne FC
OFC Pro League
19.03.26	Solomon Kings - South Melbourne	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Vanuatu United - South Melbourne	2:0 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
13.03.26	Green Gully - South Melbourne	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	South Melbourne - Bentleigh Greens	1:0 ✺
OFC Pro League
04.03.26	South Melbourne - Solomon Kings	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
22.06.25	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	0:1
15.03.25	Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne	1:0
07.07.24	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	1:0
06.04.24	Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne	1:2
11.06.23	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	3:2
11.03.23	Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne	0:1
09.07.22	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	2:1

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