Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 5

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Green Gully Reserve (Melbourne)


	Green Gully		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	3.5	2.48
	2.31	3.61	2.76
	2.57	3.86	2.37	Watch
	2.2	3.4	2.75
	2.23	3.66	2.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.35)	3.61 ↑ (3.5)	2.65 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Green Gully
39.6%

Draw
25.6%

South Melbourne
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

26%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Green Gully has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

South Melbourne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Green Gully - South Melbourne Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. South Melbourne will win (votes: 9 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for South Melbourne: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. South Melbourne (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Green Gully won 1.

South Melbourne is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Green Gully may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, South Melbourne has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Green Gully won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:31. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Green Gully won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.9:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Green Gully SC
Australian NPL Victoria
06.03.26	Green Gully - Hume City	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Avondale - Green Gully	5:0 ✺
20.02.26	Green Gully - Caroline Springs George Cross	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Heidelberg United - Green Gully	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Avondale - Green Gully	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLL
- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
07.03.26	South Melbourne - Bentleigh Greens	1:0 ✺
OFC Pro League
04.03.26	South Melbourne - Solomon Kings	5:0 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
28.02.26	Altona Magic - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
OFC Pro League
27.02.26	South Melbourne - South Island United	4:1 ✺
21.02.26	South Melbourne - Auckland FC 2	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
03.08.25	South Melbourne - Green Gully	1:1
25.04.25	Green Gully - South Melbourne	1:0
12.07.24	Green Gully - South Melbourne	0:1
12.04.24	South Melbourne - Green Gully	3:0
28.05.23	South Melbourne - Green Gully	1:0
24.02.23	Green Gully - South Melbourne	1:3
04.09.22	South Melbourne - Green Gully	1:0

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