Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 4 May 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello (Gobernador Julio A. Costa)

Referee: Argote J. (Ven)


	Defensa y Justicia		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.25	3.8
	1.94	3.35	4
	1.97	3.4	4.1
	1.95	3.1	3.75
	1.98	3.35	3.9	Watch
	2	3.35	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.89)	3.34 ↓ (3.35)	3.84 ↓ (3.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia
47.6%

Draw
28%

Peñarol de Montevideo
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

27.6%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

26.9%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Defensa y Justicia - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Defensa y Justicia in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Peñarol is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Defensa y Justicia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Defensa y Justicia will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.04.23	Defensa y Justicia - Colón	2:0 ✺
24.04.23	Barracas Central - Defensa y Justicia	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.04.23	Defensa y Justicia - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.04.23	Defensa y Justicia - Instituto Córdoba	1:0 ✺
11.04.23	Banfield - Defensa y Justicia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWWWW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0 ✺
23.04.23	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Millonarios	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
09.04.23	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLWT

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