Match Info

Date: 31 October 2026, Saturday ⏱️ In 3d 13h 📅 Remind Me


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Montevideo Wanderers

	1	X	2
	1.45	4	5.75
	1.44	4.10	6.25
	1.45	3.95	6.3
	1.44	4.36	7.1
	1.47	4.18	6.7	Watch
	1.41	4.2	6.95
	1.4	4.05	6.88	Watch
	1.44	4.1	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.58)	4.12 ↑ (3.8)	6.52 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
63.7%

Draw
22.2%

Montevideo Wanderers
14.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.9%

24.5%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

25.9%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Montevideo Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 5th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 4.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Peñarol may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Peñarol has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this matchup, Peñarol is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Peñarol has recorded 11 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:13 (averaging 1.4:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Peñarol against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 17:4 goals (averaging 1.9:0.4 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Penarol	12	6	4	2	16:8	8	21
11	Wanderers	12	4	3	5	13:18	-5	15

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 58.9%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguay Copa
27.10.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.10.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
18.10.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso	1:1 ✺
04.10.26	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLTW
- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.10.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	0:1 ✺
17.10.26	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0 ✺
10.10.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Boston River	1:3 ✺
Uruguay Copa
07.10.26	Cerrito - Montevideo Wanderers	2:3 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.10.26	Cerro - Montevideo Wanderers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
05.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	5:1
26.04.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0
19.10.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0
22.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0
19.04.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2
14.11.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2
08.06.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0

Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers