Match Info

URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Spain	Gol Play
Uruguay	VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Plaza Colonia		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	6.5	3.5	1.55	Watch
	5.5	3.75	1.55
	5.8	3.75	1.56	Watch
	5.83	3.94	1.57
	6.13	3.61	1.6	Watch
	6	3.6	1.57
	5.95	3.73	1.58	Watch
	5.8	3.75	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.94 ↑ (5.05)	3.7 ↑ (3.54)	1.57 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
15.6%

Draw
25.1%

Peñarol de Montevideo
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.3%

26.2%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

25.5%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Silva J. (G) 20. Redin E. 2. Lorenzi M. 4. Ruiz Diaz H. 22. Ramos J. 27. Barros C. 23. Piriz F. (C) 3. Calleros Y. 11. Pablo Garcia 10. Ebere C. 7. Diogo Oliveira	29. Campana M. (G) 20. Milans P. 2. Leo Coelho 4. Rodriguez J. 15. Olivera M. (C) 5. Sosa I. 6. Perez R. 7. Cabrera J. 10. Fernandez L. 25. Baez J. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
9. Alex Bruno 18. Cayetano A. 13. Garcia J. 5. Meite Y. 30. Ocampo A. 17. Otegui S. 6. Redin M. 44. Reyes G. (G) 16. Velazquez M. 8. Villalba D.	80. David Terans 12. De Amores G. (G) 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 27. Lucas Hernandez 77. Machado A. 23. Mendez J. 19. Remedi E. 21. Silva G. 22. Suarez D. 8. Villalba H.
Coaches
Diaz S.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Sosa I. 🟨,
21', Diaz S. 🟥,
30', Olivera M. 🟨,
33', Diogo Oliveira 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Milans P. ↓, Suarez D. ↑,
46', Sosa I. ↓, Remedi E. ↑,
57', Fernandez L. 🟨,
60', Baez J. ↓, Machado A. ↑,
71', Cabrera J. ↓, Villalba H. ↑,
71', Olivera M. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
75', Piriz F. ↓, Redin M. ↑,
75', Pablo Garcia ↓, Ocampo A. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Lorenzi M. ⚽,
80', Diogo Oliveira ↓, Alex Bruno ↑,
81', Perez R. 🟨,
85', Barros C. 🟨,
87', Leo Coelho 🟨,
88', Barros C. ↓, Cayetano A. ↑,
88', Ebere C. ↓, Villalba D. ↑,
90+6', 🟨,
90+6', Ocampo A. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 3 and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Plaza Colonia won 1.

Plaza Colonia is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Peñarol is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Peñarol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Peñarol is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Plaza Colonia won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 14:29 (average 0.7:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Plaza Colonia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 5:15 (average 0.5:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.03.25	Montevideo City Torque - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Plaza Colonia - Defensor Sporting	1:2 ✺
14.02.25	Cerro - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
07.02.25	Plaza Colonia - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Miramar Misiones - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TLWWW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:2 ✺
23.02.25	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
24.11.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:0
23.04.23	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2
09.10.22	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:1
Uruguay Copa
05.10.22	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.05.22	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
Uruguayan Super Cup
30.01.22	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ET
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.12.21	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 penalties

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