Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 26 May 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4


	Defensa y Justicia 2		Independiente 2

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.05	3	Watch
	2.26	3.05	3.1
	2.31	2.98	3.14	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3
	2.23	3.04	3.09	Watch
	2.15	3.25	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.18)	3.03 ↓ (3.3)	3.02 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia 2
40.4%

Draw
29.8%

Independiente 2
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

27.3%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

26.6%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Independiente 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia 2 than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente 2 than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Defensa y Justicia 2 - Independiente 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+1', 🟥,
90+5', 🟥,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Reserve League (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6).

Defensa y Justicia 2 is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Independiente 2 has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Defensa y Justicia 2 will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Defensa y Justicia 2 won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensa y Justicia 2 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente 2 - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.31%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia 2
Argentinian Reserve League
20.05.26	Atlético de Rafaela 2 - Defensa y Justicia 2	2:4 ✺
12.05.26	Defensa y Justicia 2 - Platense 2	4:0 ✺
05.05.26	Quilmes 2 - Defensa y Justicia 2	2:1 ✺
28.04.26	Defensa y Justicia 2 - Estudiantes La Plata 2	2:2 ✺
21.04.26	Tigre 2 - Defensa y Justicia 2	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWLTW
- CA Independiente 2
Argentinian Reserve League
19.05.26	Independiente 2 - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 2	5:0 ✺
14.05.26	Huracán Buenos Aires 2 - Independiente 2	1:0 ✺
05.05.26	Independiente 2 - Ferro 2	1:0 ✺
30.04.26	Boca Juniors 2 - Independiente 2	0:1 ✺
21.04.26	Independiente 2 - Racing Club 2	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Reserve League
25.09.24	Defensa y Justicia 2 - Independiente 2	5:2
19.04.24	Independiente 2 - Defensa y Justicia 2	0:1
17.02.23	Defensa y Justicia 2 - Independiente 2	0:2
19.07.22	Independiente 2 - Defensa y Justicia 2	0:0

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