Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Independiente 2		Ferro 2

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.34	4.35	7.3
	1.4	4.56	8.58
	1.35	4.43	8.32	Watch
	1.33	4	8.5
	1.32	4.25	9.25
	1.84	3.25	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.84)	4.14 ↑ (3.25)	7.61 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente 2
65.2%

Draw
22.5%

Ferro 2
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

27.4%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

27.1%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente 2's performance.

Ferro 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ferro 2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente 2 than the current prediction. (-16.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente 2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferro 2 than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ferro 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Independiente 2 - Ferro 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 1 - 0, Palais J. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 and 10).

Independiente 2 is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ferro 2 has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Independiente 2 is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Independiente 2 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente 2
Argentinian Reserve League
30.04.26	Boca Juniors 2 - Independiente 2	0:1 ✺
21.04.26	Independiente 2 - Racing Club 2	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Colón Santa Fe 2 - Independiente 2	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Independiente 2 - Atlético de Rafaela 2	3:2 ✺
31.03.26	Platense 2 - Independiente 2	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WLWWT
- Ferro Carril Oeste 2
Argentinian Reserve League
29.04.26	Ferro 2 - Atlético de Rafaela 2	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Ferro 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	1:2 ✺
15.04.26	Platense 2 - Ferro 2	1:1 ✺
07.04.26	Ferro 2 - Quilmes 2	0:2 ✺
01.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata 2 - Ferro 2	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Reserve League
16.09.25	Ferro 2 - Independiente 2	3:2

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