Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2


	Boca Juniors 2		Independiente 2

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.35	4.65
	1.69	3.55	5.08
	1.69	3.41	4.99	Watch
	1.67	3.1	4.8
	1.64	3.32	5.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.77)	3.35 ↑ (3.13)	4.96 ↑ (4.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors 2
54.5%

Draw
27.2%

Independiente 2
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

28.8%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

28%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Independiente 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boca Juniors 2 than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente 2 than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Boca Juniors 2 - Independiente 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Reserve League (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors 2 won 2.

Boca Juniors 2 is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Independiente 2's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Boca Juniors 2 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Boca Juniors 2 is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors 2 won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Boca Juniors 2 won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors 2
Argentinian Reserve League
22.04.26	Boca Juniors 2 - River Plate 2	2:0 ✺
16.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela 2 - Boca Juniors 2	1:1 ✺
08.04.26	Boca Juniors 2 - Platense 2	2:0 ✺
01.04.26	Quilmes 2 - Boca Juniors 2	1:0 ✺
26.03.26	Boca Juniors 2 - Estudiantes La Plata 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTWLW
- CA Independiente 2
Argentinian Reserve League
21.04.26	Independiente 2 - Racing Club 2	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Colón Santa Fe 2 - Independiente 2	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Independiente 2 - Atlético de Rafaela 2	3:2 ✺
31.03.26	Platense 2 - Independiente 2	2:2 ✺
26.03.26	Independiente 2 - Quilmes 2	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Reserve League
07.08.24	Independiente 2 - Boca Juniors 2	0:0
27.02.24	Boca Juniors 2 - Independiente 2	1:1
15.11.23	Boca Juniors 2 - Independiente 2	0:2
25.07.23	Boca Juniors 2 - Independiente 2	2:0
21.10.22	Independiente 2 - Boca Juniors 2	0:3
25.02.22	Independiente 2 - Boca Juniors 2	1:1

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