Match Info

Cymru North - Round 10

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Denbigh Town		Holyhead Hotspur

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	3.5
	1.79	3.99	3.58
	1.8	3.97	3.81	Watch
	1.76	3.95	3.5
	1.8	4.17	3.65
	1.75	3.85	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.77)	3.96 ↓ (3.99)	3.58 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denbigh Town
51.4%

Draw
23.1%

Holyhead Hotspur
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

23%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

19.7%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denbigh Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Holyhead Hotspur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denbigh Town than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Denbigh Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holyhead Hotspur than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Denbigh Town - Holyhead Hotspur Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Jones S. ⚽,
9', 2 - 0, Gallagher-Keenan T. ⚽,
11', 2 - 1, Owen C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
56', 2 - 2, Owen C. ⚽,
60', 2 - 3, Holland C. ⚽,
87', 2 - 4, Phillips J. ⚽,

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 12th and 14th).

Denbigh Town is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Holyhead has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Denbigh Town could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Holyhead has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Bookmakers give the edge to Denbigh Town for this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Denbigh Town has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 13:6 (averaging 2.6:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Denbigh Town against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 9:3 goals (averaging 3:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Denbigh	10	2	1	7	18:23	-5	7
14	Holyhead	9	2	1	6	11:18	-7	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denbigh Town
Welsh Cymru North
11.09.26	Denbigh Town - Bala Town	5:2 ✺
05.09.26	Newtown - Denbigh Town	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Penrhyncoch - Denbigh Town	2:2 ✺
21.08.26	Denbigh Town - Porthmadog	2:3 ✺
14.08.26	Ruthin Town - Denbigh Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLTLL
- Holyhead Hotspur
Welsh Cymru North
26.09.26	Holyhead Hotspur - Guilsfield	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Holyhead Hotspur - Newtown	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Llanuwchllyn - Holyhead Hotspur	4:0 ✺
31.08.26	Holyhead Hotspur - Porthmadog	2:2 ✺
21.08.26	Holyhead Hotspur - Bangor 1876	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru North
31.03.26	Denbigh Town - Holyhead Hotspur	1:1
01.11.25	Holyhead Hotspur - Denbigh Town	3:2
Welsh Cymru Alliance
23.11.18	Denbigh Town - Holyhead Hotspur	3:1
09.03.18	Denbigh Town - Holyhead Hotspur	5:1
10.11.17	Holyhead Hotspur - Denbigh Town	0:2

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