Match Info

BELGIUM: CHALLENGER PRO LEAGUE - ROUND 16

Date: 15 December 2023, Friday


	Dender EH		RFC Liège

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	4.2	Watch
	1.7	3.5	4
	1.75	3.75	4.33	Watch
	1.84	3.65	4.43
	1.84	3.6	4.43
	1.7	3.75	4
	1.77	3.78	4
	1.72	3.75	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.06)	3.7 ↑ (3.68)	4.19 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dender EH
52.7%

Draw
25.1%

RFC Liège
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

25.2%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

24.8%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dender EH has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dender EH's performance.

RFC Liège has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and RFC Liège might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dender EH that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RFC Liège than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that RFC Liège could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

Dender EH - RFC Liège Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Dender EH will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). RFC Liège will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dender EH: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gies X. (G) 28. Marzo S. 5. Ragolle D. 21. Cools K. 3. Pupe J. 7. M'barki R. 10. Hens L. 18. Rodes N. 8. Van Oudenhove J. 98. Soladio J. 19. Akman A.	1. Debaty K. (G) 18. Nyssen B. 24. Wilmots R. 4. Bustin J. 25. D'Ostilio J. 6. Merlen R. 2. Lioka J. 21. Cascio A. 10. Moulhi M. 13. Mouchamps D. 9. Bertaccini A.
Substitutes
88. Ferraro F. 16. Masangu K. 14. Myny O. 11. Rajsel N. 22. Ruyssen G. 20. Sankhon I. 26. Tani K. (G)	26. Cavelier M. 19. Lambot B. 12. Lejoly A. (G) 23. Loemba Y. 14. Lucker L. 8. Mputu J. 17. Panepinto T.
Coaches
Simons T.	Englebert G.

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Relegation: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Relegation: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dender EH won 2.

Dender EH is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches RFC Liège is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Dender EH is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Dender EH won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Dender EH won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FCV Dender EH
Belgian Challenger Pro League
09.12.23	Standard Liège U23 - Dender EH	0:4 ✺
05.12.23	Dender EH - Francs Borains	2:0 ✺
24.11.23	Beveren - Dender EH	3:2 ✺
10.11.23	Dender EH - Brugge U23	2:0 ✺
05.11.23	Deinze - Dender EH	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLWT
- RFC Liège
Belgian Challenger Pro League
10.12.23	RFC Liège - Francs Borains	1:0 ✺
03.12.23	RFC Liège - Seraing	2:1 ✺
26.11.23	Beerschot Wilrijk - RFC Liège	3:0 ✺
12.11.23	RFC Liège - K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	2:4 ✺
03.11.23	Genk U23 - RFC Liège	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Challenger Pro League
12.08.23	RFC Liège - Dender EH	0:1
Belgian National Division 1
22.05.22	RFC Liège - Dender EH	1:0
11.05.22	Dender EH - RFC Liège	2:0
27.03.22	RFC Liège - Dender EH	3:0
16.10.21	Dender EH - RFC Liège	0:0
14.12.19	Dender EH - RFC Liège	1:1
15.09.19	RFC Liège - Dender EH	4:2

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