The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Deportes Concepción 57.3%
Draw 24%
Deportes Puerto Montt 18.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
46.7%
27.5%
25.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.5%
26.5%
24.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Concepción's performance.
Deportes Puerto Montt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Puerto Montt might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-8.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Concepción that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Puerto Montt than the current prediction. (+6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Puerto Montt could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Deportes Concepción - Deportes Puerto Montt Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
25. Araya N. (G) 3. Carrasco D. 16. Sandoval M. 19. Jara A. 4. Caceres A. 21. Rodriguez N. 8. Martinez F. 23. Riquelme C. 40. Caceres F. 32. Larrivey J. 29. Varas D.
29. Collao G. (G) 27. Mancilla D. 26. Mancilla N. 5. Calisto F. 34. Gonzalez K. 21. Espinoza F. 18. Sabella A. 22. Jaime J. 20. Bahamonde D. 19. Taiva B. 28. Perez S.
Substitutes
24. Cavalleri M. 22. Davila Carvajal M. 9. Escobar C. 30. Espinoza E. 31. Fuentes N. 37. Grillo F. 26. Romero L. 34. Toro C. 12. Veloso Espinoza N. (G)
36. Ascui E. (G) 37. Cachi P. 6. Diaz D. 24. Gonzalez J. 38. Naguil Y. 17. Nieto B. 8. Paredes R. 35. Rojas L. A. 39. Vega G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Carrasco D. 🟨,
38', Jaime J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Carrasco D. ↓, Grillo F. ↑,
46', Caceres F. ↓, Cavalleri M. ↑,
46', Jara A. ↓, Espinoza E. ↑,
46', Martinez F. ↓, Davila Carvajal M. ↑,
58', Mancilla D. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
62', Espinoza F. 🟨,
78', Mancilla N. ↓, Vega G. ↑,
78', Espinoza F. ↓, Paredes R. ↑,
81', Perez S. ↓, Rojas L. A. ↑,
84', Sabella A. ↓, Naguil Y. ↑,
84', Collao G. ↓, Ascui E. ↑,
85', 1 - 0, Grillo F. ⚽, Davila Carvajal M. (A),
89', 2 - 0, Espinoza E. ⚽, Rodriguez N. (A),
90+2', Larrivey J. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,
Preview
Deportes Concepción is Qualified for Copa Chile (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Puerto Montt is Qualified for Copa Chile (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Now, both teams are in good form.
Puerto Montt may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Deportes Concepción will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Deportes Concepción won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.5:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Concepción won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).
Usa
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Araya N. (G) 
Rodriguez N. 
Martinez F. 
Larrivey J. 
Romero L. 
Cachi P. 
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