Match Info

CHILE: Copa Chile - Round 4

Date: 23 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Roberto Bravo Santibáñez (Melipilla)


	Deportes Concepción		Palestino

	1	X	2
	6	3.9	1.48	Watch
	6.25	4.33	1.39
	5.6	4.3	1.49	Watch
	5.6	4.51	1.5	Watch
	6	4	1.5
	5.95	4.4	1.42
	5.6	4.3	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.86 ↓ (8.5)	4.25 ↓ (4.33)	1.47 ↑ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Concepción
15.7%

Draw
21.6%

Palestino
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.7%

21%

68.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.1%

19.9%

72.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Palestino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palestino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Concepción that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palestino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportes Concepción - Palestino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Munoz J. (G) 4. Caceres A. 5. Silva S. 13. Cornejo F. 18. Saavedra Saavedra F. I. 10. Nunez F. 6. Astete N. 14. Martinez S. 23. Ojeda U. 7. Gillard A. 32. Larrivey J.	25. Perez Kirby S. A. (G) 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 13. Suarez C. 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 14. Abrigo J. 5. Fernandez J. 10. Martinez Arce A. E. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 18. Arias J. 20. Tapia Paez G.
Substitutes
25. Araya N. (G) 16. Arriagada S. 3. Carrasco D. 24. Espinola J. 30. Fuentes N. 21. Mancilla A. 15. Morales A. 27. Sepulveda N. 11. Valdivia B.	11. Benitez J. 26. Contreras D. (G) 23. Leon J. 27. Marabel J. 42. Meza F. 6. Meza N. 15. Montes Romero F. T. 24. Salgado D. 22. Soto B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', Ojeda U. 🟨,
23', Martinez Arce A. E. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Martinez S. ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Martinez Arce A. E. ⚽, Espinoza Hevia V. A. (A),
43', Caceres A. 🟨,
45+3', Carrasco B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Carrasco B. ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
46', Martinez Arce A. E. ↓, Montes Romero F. T. ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Abrigo J. ⚽, Espinoza Hevia V. A. (A),
69', Ojeda U. ↓, Valdivia B. ↑,
77', 2 - 2, Astete N. ⚽, Silva S. (A),
83', Arias J. ↓, Marabel J. ↑,
83', Larrivey J. ↓, Mancilla A. ↑,
87', 3 - 2, Gillard A. ⚽, Saavedra Saavedra F. I. (A),
88', Gillard A. 🟨,
90', Nunez F. ↓, Carrasco D. ↑,
90', Astete N. ↓, Sepulveda N. ↑,
90+2', Fernandez J. ↓, Salgado D. ↑,
90+2', Garguez Gomez I. A. ↓, Leon J. ↑,
90+5', Abrigo J. 🟨,

Preview

Deportes Concepción is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Palestino is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Palestino could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Palestino is absolute favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Deportes Concepción won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:8 (average 0:4).

Including matches at home between the teams Deportes Concepción won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
16.03.25	Deportes Santa Cruz - Deportes Concepción	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Recoleta	0:1 ✺
02.03.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Concepción	3:1 ✺
21.02.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Temuco	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
12.02.25	Deportes Concepción - Universidad de Concepción	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLTW
- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Primera Division
16.03.25	Palestino - Ñublense	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Deportes Iquique - Palestino	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.25	Universidad Católica - Palestino	1:2 penalties ✺
Chilean Primera Division
01.03.25	Palestino - Audax Italiano	0:2 ✺
21.02.25	Unión Española - Palestino	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Cup
03.07.21	Deportes Concepción - Palestino	0:4
30.06.21	Palestino - Deportes Concepción	4:0

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