Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Referee: Rey Hilfer L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Deportes Tolima		Deportivo Táchira

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	5.75	Watch
	1.47	4.1	6.75
	1.55	3.7	6.4	Watch
	1.53	3.81	6.99
	1.5	4.02	7.2	Watch
	1.53	3.6	6.5	Watch
	1.64	3.96	5.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.45)	3.86 ↓ (4.13)	6.51 ↓ (7.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
61.1%

Draw
24.4%

Deportivo Táchira
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

22.9%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

22.4%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Deportivo Táchira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportes Tolima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Táchira than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Táchira Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Deportes Tolima will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neto Volpi (G) 17. Arrieta C. 3. Angulo J. 2. Angulo A. 20. Hernandez J. 15. Nieto J. (C) 80. Rovira B. 18. Florez K. 24. Parra Osorio A. 28. Lopez E. 10. Torres Patino J. P.	50. Camargo J. (G) 88. Alfonzo D. 4. Fratta G. 2. Sanchez J. 13. Camacho P. (C) 20. Calzadilla C. 25. Perez A. 10. Sosa C. 45. Provenzano F. 7. Penaranda A. 9. Pollero R.
Substitutes
30. Barbosa Gomez S. P. 7. Gonzalez J. 32. Guzman S. 22. Marquinez L. (G) 5. Mera J. 31. Moreno Y. 4. Pedrozo D. 16. Reyes V. 9. Sandoval L. 6. Trujillo C. 8. Valencia E. 11. Valencia J.	1. Araque A. (G) 17. Balza J. 11. Gonzalez L. 23. Hernandez O. 38. Lozano G. 3. Lusnig L. 6. Montanez A. 22. Oliveros A. 43. Roa M. 44. Tamiche E. 8. Villalpando J. 27. Zuniga L.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Recoba A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Arrieta C. 🟨,
11', Florez K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,
59', Florez K. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
59', Nieto J. ↓, Guzman S. ↑,
64', Alfonzo D. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
72', Calzadilla C. ↓, Balza J. ↑,
73', Sanchez J. ↓, Lusnig L. ↑,
76', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
84', Provenzano F. ↓, Zuniga L. ↑,
86', Arrieta C. ↓, Mera J. ↑,
90+4', 0 - 1, Gonzalez L. (Penalty Awarded),
Penalties (3 - 0)
1, Lopez E. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Gonzalez L. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Sandoval L. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Balza J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Rovira B. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Pollero R. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Guzman S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Deportivo Táchira may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Deportes Tolima is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportes Tolima won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Deportes Tolima: 0.62%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
23.02.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportes Tolima	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.02.26	Deportivo Táchira - Deportes Tolima	0:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
15.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportes Tolima	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Llaneros SA	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWTL
- Deportivo Táchira
Venezuelan Primera Division
22.02.26	Monagas - Deportivo Táchira	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.02.26	Deportivo Táchira - Deportes Tolima	0:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
14.02.26	Deportivo Táchira - Trujillanos	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.02.26	Deportivo Táchira - The Strongest	2:0 penalties ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
06.02.26	Portuguesa Acarígua - Deportivo Táchira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
19.02.26	Deportivo Táchira - Deportes Tolima	0:1

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