Match Info

COLOMBIA: Primera A - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá)

Referee: Marquez C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Deportivo La Equidad		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.7	3.1	1.98
	3.75	3.2	2.08	Watch
	4.02	3.25	2.13
	3.93	3.19	2.01	Watch
	3.6	3.1	2.05
	4.06	3.25	2.03	Watch
	3.75	3.2	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↑ (3.26)	3.19 ↑ (2.91)	2.05 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

Watch this match and Colombian Primera A with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: Nuestra Tele

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo La Equidad
24.5%

Draw
29.6%

Independiente Medellín
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

31.7%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

30.9%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo La Equidad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente Medellín's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Equidad than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. La Equidad will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 9 - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind Medellín: 71.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Varela C. (G) 4. Tegue G. 24. Montano B. 2. Polanco D. 3. Correa A. 13. Abonia Y. 5. Copete D. 19. Orozco S. 18. Mayo S. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 7. Del Valle A.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 39. Escorcia L. 33. Londono D. 14. Perlaza B. 15. Alvarado J. 13. Chaverra F. 31. Moreno D. 8. Garcia M. 9. Sandoval L. 19. Fydriszewski F.
Substitutes
14. Acosta F. 30. Agron B. 28. Chaverra F. 21. Gomez S. 12. Perez A. (G) 8. Tamara S.	7. Berrio L. 25. Chaux E. (G) 27. Leon B. 10. Marcus Vinicius 18. Martinez Yepez H. E. 6. Mosquera J. 80. Serna A.
Coaches
Mahecha J.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Copete D. 🟨,
12', Copete D. ↓, Acosta F. ↑,
33', Polanco D. 🟨,
45+6', Del Valle A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Escorcia L. ↓, Martinez Yepez H. E. ↑,
57', Correa A. 🟨,
59', Moreno D. ↓, Marcus Vinicius ↑,
59', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Leon B. ↑,
61', Chaverra F. 🟨,
62', Mayo S. ↓, Tamara S. ↑,
62', Castro Espinosa B. D. ↓, Chaverra F. ↑,
74', Abonia Y. 🟨,
75', Alvarado J. ↓, Serna A. ↑,
88', Del Valle A. ↓, Gomez S. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches La Equidad won 1.

La Equidad has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Ind Medellín in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

La Equidad could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ind Medellín will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches La Equidad won 4 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 20:24 (average 1:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams La Equidad won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:14 (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo La Equidad
Colombian Primera A
04.03.25	Llaneros SA - Deportivo La Equidad	1:0 ✺
21.02.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Boyacá Chicó	0:1 ✺
16.02.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo La Equidad	0:0 ✺
13.02.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Envigado	2:3 ✺
08.02.25	Millonarios - Deportivo La Equidad	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
03.03.25	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Pasto	1:0 ✺
27.02.25	Independiente Medellín - Llaneros SA	3:0 ✺
15.02.25	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	0:1 ✺
12.02.25	Independiente Medellín - Unión Magdalena	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Envigado - Independiente Medellín	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
06.10.24	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo La Equidad	0:0
22.03.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	1:2
15.07.23	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo La Equidad	2:2
15.02.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	2:1
05.08.22	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1
16.06.22	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	1:5
21.05.22	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo La Equidad	2:0

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