Match Info

Copa Colombia - Second stage - Semi-finals

Date: 3 November 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Sur (Envigado)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Fanatiz


	Envigado		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	5.5	4	1.57	Watch
	5.9	3.95	1.55
	5.16	3.93	1.61	Watch
	5.67	3.84	1.57	Watch
	4.8	3.55	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.41 ↑ (4.85)	3.85 ↑ (3.7)	1.6 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Envigado
17.3%

Draw
24.2%

Independiente Medellín
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.4%

25.4%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

24.4%

57.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Envigado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Envigado - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Ind Medellín (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Independiente Medellín will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente Medellín will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Montoya J. (G) 27. Quejada J. 4. Uribe N. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. 2. Palacios D. 13. Soto T. 6. Palacio J. 21. Lopez E. 19. Berrio F. 9. Diaz L. 11. Garces J.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 26. Mena Perea E. 33. Londono D. 23. Torijano F. 2. Chaverra L. 19. Fydriszewski F. 80. Serna A. 14. Perlaza B. 7. Berrio L. 13. Chaverra F. 9. Sandoval L.
Substitutes
68. Aristizabal J. 15. Cuervo S. 7. Dawson D. 8. Espana Alvarez R. C. 14. Hinestroza J. 3. Holguin J. 18. Hurtado W. 26. Valencia Mosquera D. A. 12. Villa M. (G)	15. Alvarado J. 71. Arizala J. 25. Chaux E. (G) 8. Garcia M. 4. Mantilla K. 31. Moreno D. 24. Ortiz J. 20. Segura N. 11. Valencia J.
Coaches
Orozco A.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Soto T. 🟨,
38', Serna A. 🟨,
45+1', Uribe N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Soto T. ↓, Aristizabal J. ↑,
46', Uribe N. ↓, Cuervo S. ↑,
51', Palacios D. 🟥,
52', Chaverra L. (Pen),
64', Perlaza B. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
64', Serna A. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
64', Sandoval L. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
77', Chaverra F. ↓, Arizala J. ↑,
81', 🟨,
82', Berrio L. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
85', 0 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽,
90', Gamboa Valencia J. J. 🟨,
90+1', Aguerre W. 🟨,
90+2', Lopez E. 🟨,
90+2', Garcia M. 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+5', Diaz L. ↓, Dawson D. ↑,
90+5', Lopez E. ↓, Hinestroza J. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Envigado won 1.

Envigado is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ind Medellín is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Ind Medellín is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Envigado won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 19:30. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Envigado won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 0.9:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Envigado FC
Colombian Primera A
28.10.25	Rionegro Águilas - Envigado	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Envigado - Boyacá Chicó	0:2 ✺
Colombian Copa
21.10.25	Deportivo Pereira - Envigado	1:1 penalties ✺
Colombian Primera A
17.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Envigado	3:1 ✺
11.10.25	Deportes Tolima - Envigado	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34 LLWLW
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
29.10.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	5:2 ✺
20.10.25	Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
17.10.25	Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF	3:1 ✺
13.10.25	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
24.07.25	Independiente Medellín - Envigado	3:4
09.02.25	Envigado - Independiente Medellín	0:1
14.11.24	Independiente Medellín - Envigado	1:0
28.04.24	Envigado - Independiente Medellín	0:1
05.08.23	Independiente Medellín - Envigado	1:0
11.02.23	Envigado - Independiente Medellín	2:1
25.09.22	Envigado - Independiente Medellín	1:2

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