Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 1

Date: 13 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Independiente Medellín		Alianza Valledupar

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.75	8.5	Watch
	1.38	4.33	7.25
	1.37	4.35	9	Watch
	1.37	4.42	9.48
				Watch
	1.4	4	8.5
	1.37	4.33	10.5	Watch
	1.38	4.2	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.45)	4.34 ↑ (4)	8.66 ↑ (7.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
67.7%

Draw
21.5%

Alianza Valledupar
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.9%

23.2%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.4%

23%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Independiente Medellín will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 3. Palacios J. 24. Ortiz J. 33. Londono D. 31. Moreno D. 71. Arizala J. 18. Martinez Yepez H. E. 13. Chaverra F. 7. Berrio L. 11. Valencia J. 9. Sandoval L.	12. Chaverra J. (G) 60. Rosales Y. 5. Franco P. (C) 16. Saldana L. 18. Garcia J. 19. Perez L. 24. Manjarres R. 7. Castillo J. 17. Pardo F. 77. Del Valle A. 99. Gil M.
Substitutes
15. Alvarado J. 25. Chaux E. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 30. Estupinan D. 39. Mancilla G. 14. Perlaza B. 17. Rodallega Y. 20. Segura N. 23. Torijano F.	32. Lucumi C. 3. Moreno K. 21. Mosquera F. 10. Munoz J. 8. Munoz J. 29. Torres E. 1. Wallens J. (G)
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Bodhert H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Del Valle A. ⚽, Manjarres R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Berrio L. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
46', Palacios J. ↓, Chaverra L. ↑,
57', Del Valle A. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
57', Manjarres R. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
61', Gil M. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
61', Moreno D. ↓, Rodallega Y. ↑,
61', Chaverra F. ↓, Mancilla G. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Perlaza B. ⚽, Martinez Yepez H. E. (A),
78', Pardo F. ↓, Lucumi C. ↑,
79', Castillo J. ↓, Mosquera F. ↑,
80', Arizala J. ↓, Torijano F. ↑,
83', Chaverra L. 🟨,
84', Torres E. 🟨,
87', 🟨,
90+2', Munoz J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 3.

Ind Medellín has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alianza is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ind Medellín is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 35:22. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:7. (average 2.7:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
29.06.25	Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
24.06.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
19.06.25	América de Cali - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
15.06.25	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima	2:1 ✺
11.06.25	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTTWW
- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Copa
15.06.25	Barranquilla - Alianza Valledupar	0:1 ✺
11.06.25	Alianza Valledupar - Envigado	3:3 ✺
08.06.25	Orsomarso - Alianza Valledupar	2:2 ✺
04.06.25	Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas	4:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
25.05.25	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
26.01.25	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín	1:1
10.10.24	Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar	2:0
24.02.24	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín	2:0
20.08.23	Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar	2:1
26.02.23	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín	0:1
30.09.22	Independiente Medellín - Alianza Valledupar	3:1
10.04.22	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín	1:1

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