Match Info

Capixaba - Round 6

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Engenheiro Alencar Araripe (Cariacica)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TV Record


	Desportiva Ferroviaria		Porto Vitória

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.82	3.25
	2.25	2.87	3.2
	2.27	2.92	3.24	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3.1
	2.26	2.85	3.26
	2.28	2.85	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.97)	2.85 ↓ (3.25)	3.21 ↓ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desportiva Ferroviaria
40%

Draw
31.8%

Porto Vitória
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28.2%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.9%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desportiva Ferroviaria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Desportiva Ferroviaria's form might have worsened.

Porto Vitória has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desportiva Ferroviaria than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Desportiva Ferroviaria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto Vitória than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Desportiva Ferroviaria - Porto Vitória Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Pedro Zanette (G) 23. Bahia 2. Jairo 3. Janelson 14. Jorge Mendes 13. Mariano (C) 9. Romaneli 5. Ruan 20. Tiago Moura 4. Vinicius Leandro 6. Wilian Simoes	1. Rafael Mariano (G) 3. Joao Victor 2. Kellyton 8. Leo Baiano (C) 6. Lucas Peres 7. Luiz Henrique 10. Matheus Firmino 4. Matheus Guedes 5. Matheus Santos 9. Victor Rangel 11. Willians Santana
Substitutes
25. Cunha V. M. 10. Davi Santos 19. Jhonatan Marino 16. Kevin 15. Lekinho 17. Lucas Tavares 8. Parmanhani K. 1. Rafael Mallmann (G) 7. Rodriguinho 22. Talles 18. Wesley Dias 11. Yan de Jesus	12. Aydhan Martins (G) 15. Cardoso K. 14. Ferrugem 21. Henrique Melo 18. Josue 19. Mauricio 17. Miguel 25. Pedro Felipe 20. Renato Henrique 13. Taleco 16. Thallyson 22. Wilson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Leo Baiano 🟨,
29', Victor Rangel 🟥,
43', Ruan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Tiago Moura ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
64', Bahia ↓, Lekinho ↑,
80', Jhonatan Marino 🟨,
83', Kellyton 🟨,
83', 🟨,
88', Matheus Santos 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviaria won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Porto Vitória may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ferroviaria might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Ferroviaria won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviaria won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportiva Ferroviaria
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
27.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Rio Branco AC ES	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:2 ✺
20.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Serra - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:0 ✺
13.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Rio Branco-VN	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWLLW
- Porto Vitória
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
28.01.26	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco-VN	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Porto Vitória	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Porto Vitória - Forte Rio Bananal	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Vitória ES - Porto Vitória	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Porto Vitória - Capixaba SC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
29.07.25	Porto Vitória - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:1 penalties
22.07.25	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Porto Vitória	1:0
18.06.25	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Porto Vitória	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
13.02.25	Porto Vitória - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:3
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
02.08.24	Porto Vitória - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:0
13.07.24	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Porto Vitória	0:2
22.06.24	Porto Vitória - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:0

Desportiva Ferroviaria - Porto Vitória: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide