Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Engenheiro Alencar Araripe (Cariacica)


	Desportiva Ferroviaria		Vilavelhense

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.45	5.15
	1.64	3.46	5.19	Watch
	1.62	3.2	5
	1.58	3.45	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.67)	3.39 ↓ (3.58)	5.24 ↑ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desportiva Ferroviaria
56.2%

Draw
26.6%

Vilavelhense
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

25.5%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

25.2%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desportiva Ferroviaria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Vilavelhense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Desportiva Ferroviaria than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilavelhense than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Pedro Zanette (G) 23. Bahia 2. Jairo 14. Jorge Mendes 9. Kieza 13. Mariano 8. Parmanhani K. 5. Ruan 20. Tiago Moura (C) 4. Vinicius Leandro 18. Wesley Dias	1. Lucas Pacheco (G) 5. Alberto 2. Gabriel Amorim 11. Guilherme 4. Jomar 10. Juninho 6. Kainandro 7. Kelvin 8. Makelele 3. Palacios Cantillo J. D. 9. Silva D.
Substitutes
25. Cunha V. M. 17. Davi 3. Janelson 16. Kevin 15. Lekinho 42. Montanha 1. Rafael Mallmann (G) 7. Rodriguinho 21. Talles 11. Yan de Jesus	19. Almeida W. 21. Campos Almeida E. d. S. 15. Davi Freitas 18. Davis 14. Fellipi Marques 92. Joao Gomes (G) 22. Joao Rozario 91. Matheus Cabral (G) 20. Robert O. 16. Salah 13. Sanchez A. 17. Shaider

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Ruan ⚽,
39', Palacios Cantillo J. D. 🟥,
44', Jomar ↓, Lucas Bonete ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Silva D. ↓, Davis ↑,
60', Borges 🟨,
67', Guilherme ↓, Joao Rozario ↑,
67', Gabriel Amorim ↓, Shaider ↑,
67', Kelvin ↓, Robert O. ↑,
70', Kieza 🟨,
74', 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Davis ⚽,
80', Silva D. 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviaria won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ferroviaria may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ferroviaria is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ferroviaria won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:8. (average 2.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviaria won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportiva Ferroviaria
Copa do Brasil
17.02.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
12.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Capixaba SC	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Noroeste - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Porto Vitória	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWLLT
- Vilavelhense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
12.02.26	Porto Vitória - Vilavelhense	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Rio Branco-VN - Vilavelhense	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Vilavelhense - Forte Rio Bananal	1:1 ✺
29.01.26	Capixaba SC - Vilavelhense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
20.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	1:2
08.03.25	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	2:1
05.03.25	Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:4
09.02.25	Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:4
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
30.06.24	Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:1
09.06.24	Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:3
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
10.02.23	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	2:2

Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide