Match Info

National League South - Round 5

Date: 25 August 2025, Monday

Location: Meadowbank (Dorking)


	Dorking Wanderers		Tonbridge Angels

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.33	6.25
	1.4	4.45	6.7
	1.4	4.54	6.83
	1.02	16.44	25.00	Watch
	1.4	4.2	7.5
	1.4	4.33	7.31
	1.31	4.51	7.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.36)	6.11 ↑ (4.5)	9.57 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorking Wanderers
73.7%

Draw
16%

Tonbridge Angels
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.4%

20.4%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

18.4%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorking Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dorking Wanderers's performance.

Tonbridge Angels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorking Wanderers than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dorking Wanderers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Rutherford A. ⚽,
10', 2 - 0, Carter C. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
61', 3 - 0, Rutherford A. ⚽,
62', 3 - 1, Unwin B. ⚽,
75', 4 - 1, Camp B. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dorking won 2.

Dorking has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tonbridge has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Dorking is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Dorking won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Dorking won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorking Wanderers
English National League South
23.08.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Dorking Wanderers	2:0 ✺
19.08.25	Dorking Wanderers - Slough Town	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Dorking Wanderers - Hampton & Richmond Borough	0:3 ✺
09.08.25	Chippenham Town - Dorking Wanderers	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Dorking Wanderers - Aldershot Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLTL
- Tonbridge Angels
English National League South
23.08.25	Tonbridge Angels - Chesham United	0:0 ✺
19.08.25	Dagenham & Redbridge - Tonbridge Angels	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Totton - Tonbridge Angels	3:0 ✺
09.08.25	Tonbridge Angels - Slough Town	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Tonbridge Angels - Kingstonian	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
11.02.25	Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels	1:0
22.10.24	Tonbridge Angels - Dorking Wanderers	1:0
05.02.22	Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels	1:3
25.09.21	Tonbridge Angels - Dorking Wanderers	3:1
14.11.20	Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels	4:1
10.08.19	Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels	3:1
English Isthmian League Premier Division
13.04.19	Tonbridge Angels - Dorking Wanderers	0:2

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