Match Info

National League South - Round 44

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Tonbridge Angels		Salisbury

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	3
	2.14	3.74	3.02
	2.12	3.85	2.96	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3
	2.17	3.51	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.26)	3.62 ↑ (3.54)	3.02 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tonbridge Angels
43.6%

Draw
25.6%

Salisbury
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

26.2%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

25.1%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tonbridge Angels has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Salisbury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salisbury than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Tonbridge Angels - Salisbury Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Thompson J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
48', 2 - 0, Leahy T. ⚽,
65', 2 - 1, Coppin N. ⚽,
70', 3 - 1, Sutcliffe E. ⚽,
76', 3 - 2, Odokonyero N. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 19).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tonbridge might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tonbridge won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tonbridge won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Salisbury: 4.6% Tonbridge: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Salisbury	10	5	3	2	18:7	11	18
10	Tonbridge	10	4	2	4	19:11	8	14

Last Results with these Odds

Tonbridge Angels - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.08%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Salisbury - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 32.69%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tonbridge Angels
English National League South
06.04.26	Eastbourne Borough - Tonbridge Angels	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Tonbridge Angels - Ebbsfleet United	1:2 ✺
28.03.26	Chesham United - Tonbridge Angels	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Tonbridge Angels - Bath City	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Weston-super-Mare - Tonbridge Angels	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TLLWW
- Salisbury FC
English National League South
06.04.26	Salisbury - Weston-super-Mare	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Totton - Salisbury	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Salisbury - Dover Athletic	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Salisbury - Enfield Town	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Slough Town - Salisbury	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
06.09.25	Salisbury - Tonbridge Angels	1:3
29.03.25	Salisbury - Tonbridge Angels	2:0
31.08.24	Tonbridge Angels - Salisbury	1:0
30.03.13	Salisbury - Tonbridge Angels	2:0
21.08.12	Tonbridge Angels - Salisbury	N/A

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