Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Round 20

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Dragones Toluca		Jaguares de Chiapas

	1	X	2
	3.44	3.95	1.84	Watch
	3.4	3.4	1.85
	3.26	3.78	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (3.18)	3.71 ↑ (3.6)	1.9 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dragones Toluca
27.2%

Draw
24.7%

Jaguares de Chiapas
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

25%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.9%

23.8%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dragones Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Jaguares de Chiapas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dragones Toluca than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaguares de Chiapas than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Dragones Toluca - Jaguares de Chiapas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 5).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Chiapas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Dragones Toluca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dragones Toluca
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
15.02.26	Montañeses - Dragones Toluca	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Dragones Toluca - Inter Playa Del Carmen	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Héroes de Zaci - Dragones Toluca	0:4 ✺
24.01.26	Dragones Toluca - Celaya	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Chapulineros de Oaxaca - Dragones Toluca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LTWLT
- Jaguares de Chiapas
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
14.02.26	Jaguares de Chiapas - Cañoneros Marina	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Pioneros de Cancún - Jaguares de Chiapas	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Jaguares de Chiapas - Montañeses	3:4 penalties ✺
17.01.26	Inter Playa Del Carmen - Jaguares de Chiapas	4:3 penalties ✺
10.01.26	Jaguares de Chiapas - Héroes de Zaci	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
04.10.25	Jaguares de Chiapas - Dragones Toluca	2:1

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