Match Info

Carioca B1 - Round 8

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday


	Duque de Caxias		Paduano

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.88	3.4
	2.22	3.19	3.10	Watch
	2.13	3.43	3.12
	2.25	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.3)	3.15 ↑ (2.91)	3.16 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Duque de Caxias
41.9%

Draw
29.1%

Paduano
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

31.1%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

30.8%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Duque de Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Paduano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Duque de Caxias than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paduano than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Duque de Caxias - Paduano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', 1 - 1, ⚽,
89', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 and 11 in the zone Relegation ~ Carioca B2).

In recent matches, Duque de Caxias has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paduano is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Duque de Caxias
Brazilian Carioca B1
18.10.25	Friburguense - Duque de Caxias	0:1 ✺
11.10.25	São Cristóvão - Duque de Caxias	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Duque de Caxias - Campo Grande	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Bonsucesso - Duque de Caxias	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Duque de Caxias - Artsul	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTLW
- Paduano EC
Brazilian Carioca B1
18.10.25	Paduano - EC Campo Grande	0:1 ✺
11.10.25	Bonsucesso - Paduano	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Paduano - Artsul	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Serrano FC - Paduano	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Paduano - Petrópolis	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLWL

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