Match Info

Carioca B1 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday


	Bonsucesso		Duque de Caxias

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.62	3.45
	2.28	2.64	3.53
	2.05	3	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.08)	2.75 ↓ (2.94)	3.53 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bonsucesso
41.3%

Draw
32.9%

Duque de Caxias
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

31%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

33%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bonsucesso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Duque de Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bonsucesso than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bonsucesso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Duque de Caxias than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Bonsucesso - Duque de Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca B1 (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca B1 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In recent matches, Bonsucesso has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Duque de Caxias is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bonsucesso could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bonsucesso won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home match between the teams, Bonsucesso won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bonsucesso FC
Brazilian Carioca B1
15.11.25	Duque de Caxias - Bonsucesso	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Serrano FC - Bonsucesso	1:0 ✺
05.11.25	Carapebus Campos - Bonsucesso	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Bonsucesso - Petrópolis	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Bonsucesso - Nova Cidade	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLTTW
- Duque de Caxias
Brazilian Carioca B1
15.11.25	Duque de Caxias - Bonsucesso	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Carapebus Campos - Duque de Caxias	0:2 ✺
05.11.25	Niteroiense - Duque de Caxias	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Duque de Caxias - Nova Cidade	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Duque de Caxias - Paduano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Carioca B1
15.11.25	Duque de Caxias - Bonsucesso	1:0
27.09.25	Bonsucesso - Duque de Caxias	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
11.11.20	Duque de Caxias - Bonsucesso	5:0
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
30.01.14	Duque de Caxias - Bonsucesso	1:1

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