The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
EC Primavera 56.6%
Draw 21.9%
Grêmio Prudente 21.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.5%
26.9%
32.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.6%
27.7%
31.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
EC Primavera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in EC Primavera's performance.
Grêmio Prudente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio Prudente might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC Primavera than the current prediction. (-15%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with EC Primavera that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Prudente than the current prediction. (+10.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio Prudente could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
EC Primavera - Grêmio Prudente Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ariel (G) 3. Afonso 9. Brunao 2. Cleiton 7. Douglas Carvalho 11. Josiel 5. Junior Caicara (C) 4. Kauan Martins 10. Matheus Anjos 8. Renatinho 6. Victor J.
96. Joao Paulo (G) 97. Alan James 3. Alan Uchoa 5. Derick 11. Douglas 59. Gedeilson 24. Igor Ribeiro 98. Jonatha Carlos 2. Marcos Moser 6. Mateus Muller 8. Pedro D.
Substitutes
20. Augusto M. 13. Bruno Lima 18. Cesar 19. Henan 17. Jean Silva 23. Kauan 14. Luis Fernando 25. Mineiro K. 15. Nelsinho 21. Raphael Luz 12. Vinicius 16. Vitor Braga
. Andre 14. Borech 7. Daniel 20. Deivid Santos 80. Favero 33. Gabriel Santos 19. Igor Pimenta 10. Kauan 22. Mika 12. Ricardo (G) 99. Wagner Marques
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Brunao ⚽,
45', 2 - 0, Brunao (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Victor J. ↓, Luis Fernando ↑,
61', Derick ↓, Favero ↑,
65', Renatinho ↓, Nelsinho ↑,
67', Alan James ↓, Wagner Marques ↑,
73', Matheus Anjos ↓, Vitor Braga ↑,
73', Brunao ↓, Jean Silva ↑,
73', Afonso ↓, Cesar ↑,
80', Pedro D. ↓, Igor Pimenta ↑,
80', Douglas ↓, Andre ↑,
85', Jean Silva 🟨,
90+1', Luis Fernando 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 1, Mateus Muller ⚽,
90+12', Cesar 🟥,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Mateus Muller (Pen),
1, Vitor Braga (Pen),
2, Kauan (Pen),
2, Josiel (Pen),
3, Alan Uchoa (Pen),
3, Cleiton (Pen),
4, Favero (Pen),
4, Jean Silva (Pen),
5, Jonatha Carlos (Pen),
5, Junior Caicara (Pen),
6, (Pen),
6, (Pen),
7, (Pen),
7, (Pen),
Preview
1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.
Primavera has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Grêmio Prudente is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Primavera won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).
Watch
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Ariel (G) 
Vinicius 
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