Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista A3 - Round 13

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday


	EC São Bernardo		Lemense FC

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.1	4.2
	1.8	3.1	4.5
	1.98	3.14	3.56
	2	3.09	3.78
	1.8	3.1	4.5
	2.04	3.06	3.97
	1.8	3.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.22)	3.1 ↑ (2.8)	4.14 ↑ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC São Bernardo
48.4%

Draw
29.5%

Lemense FC
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

32.6%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

31.4%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in EC São Bernardo's performance.

Lemense FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with EC São Bernardo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lemense FC than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

EC São Bernardo - Lemense FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', Mayson 🟥,
35', 1 - 0, Alyson Motta ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
75', 2 - 0, Alyson Motta ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, Ronaldo (Pen),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 13).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

EC São Bernardo will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches EC São Bernardo won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0 (average 0:0).

Including matches at home between the teams EC São Bernardo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São Bernardo
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
01.03.25	Comercial SP - EC São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
26.02.25	Sertãozinho - EC São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	EC São Bernardo - Bandeirante	1:1 ✺
19.02.25	EC São Bernardo - União São João	1:1 ✺
14.02.25	Marília - EC São Bernardo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TTTTL
- Lemense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
01.03.25	Desportivo Brasil - Lemense FC	2:1 ✺
26.02.25	Lemense FC - XV de Jaú	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Catanduva - Lemense FC	3:2 ✺
19.02.25	Lemense FC - Rio Preto	1:0 ✺
15.02.25	Rio Branco de Americana - Lemense FC	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
02.03.24	Lemense FC - EC São Bernardo	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
28.04.21	EC São Bernardo - Lemense FC	0:0

EC São Bernardo - Lemense FC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide