Match Info

Paulista A3 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bento de Abreu (Sao Paulo)


	Marília		EC São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.15	4.65
	1.71	3.12	4.5
	1.74	3.26	4.72	Watch
	1.75	3	4.8
	1.7	3.18	5.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.69)	3.14 ↓ (3.41)	4.74 ↑ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Marília
52.3%

Draw
28.7%

EC São Bernardo
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

26.7%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

26.4%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marília has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

EC São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marília than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Marília - EC São Bernardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Lazaro ⚽,
90+7', 2 - 0, Lima L. ⚽,
Penalties (4 - 1)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 0-2. Second leg.

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Marília is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Marília won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Marília won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marília AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
28.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Marília	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Marília - Francana	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	1:0 ✺
11.03.26	Marília - União Suzano	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Rio Branco de Americana - Marília	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLWW
- EC São Bernardo
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
28.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Marília	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	União São João - EC São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Portuguesa Santista	0:3 ✺
11.03.26	Bandeirante - EC São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Itapirense - EC São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
28.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Marília	2:0
24.01.26	EC São Bernardo - Marília	1:1
14.02.25	Marília - EC São Bernardo	3:1
08.03.24	EC São Bernardo - Marília	2:2

Marília - EC São Bernardo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide