Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 13 - Round 6

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday


	El Palmar		Cieza

	1	X	2
	5.7	3.85	1.48
	6.85	4.02	1.44
	5.65	4.19	1.50	Watch
	6.86	4.1	1.41
	3.95	3.4	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.8 ↑ (4.05)	3.91 ↑ (3.34)	1.53 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Palmar
15.9%

Draw
23.6%

Cieza
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

27.2%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

26.2%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Palmar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Palmar's form might have worsened.

Cieza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cieza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Palmar than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for El Palmar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cieza than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cieza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

El Palmar - Cieza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
34', 1 - 0, Martinez J. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Britos C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
59', 1 - 2, ⚽,
85', 1 - 3, ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 13 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Palmar won 2.

El Palmar has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ciudad de Cieza is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Ciudad de Cieza is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, El Palmar won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, El Palmar won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EG El Palmar
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
05.10.25	Bala Azul - El Palmar	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	El Palmar - Olímpico de Totana	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Cartagena B - El Palmar	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	El Palmar - Real Murcia B	0:1 ✺
06.09.25	Yeclano B - El Palmar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTLLL
- CD Cieza
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
05.10.25	Cieza - Deportivo Marítimo	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Unión Molinense - Cieza	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Santomera - Cieza	1:2 ✺
07.09.25	Cieza - Caravaca	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.08.25	Águilas - Cieza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
19.03.25	Cieza - El Palmar	4:1
06.10.24	El Palmar - Cieza	3:2
23.03.24	Cieza - El Palmar	2:3
05.11.23	El Palmar - Cieza	0:1
15.04.23	El Palmar - Cieza	3:3
11.12.22	Cieza - El Palmar	0:1
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
08.04.18	El Palmar - Cieza	0:1

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