Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 26

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino (Elvas)


	Elvas		Moncarapachense

	1	X	2
	2.22	2.68	3.4
	2.24	2.71	3.38
	2.25	2.79	3.45	Watch
	2.25	2.7	3.2
	2.21	3.09	3.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (1.98)	2.79 ↓ (3.08)	3.34 ↓ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elvas
40.5%

Draw
32.4%

Moncarapachense
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

29.6%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

31.3%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elvas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Elvas's form might have worsened.

Moncarapachense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elvas than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elvas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moncarapachense than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Elvas - Moncarapachense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 10 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Elvas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Elvas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Elvas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Elvas - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 45.91%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- O Elvas CAD
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
12.04.26	Comércio e Indústria - Elvas	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Elvas - Serpa	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Alcochetense - Elvas	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Elvas - Oriental	0:0 ✺
08.03.26	Alverca B - Elvas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 TWLTL
- Lusitano Ginásio Clube Moncarapachense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
12.04.26	Moncarapachense - Juventude de Évora	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Louletano - Moncarapachense	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Moncarapachense - Sintrense	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Portimonense B - Moncarapachense	0:3 ✺
08.03.26	Moncarapachense - Atlético da Malveira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
21.12.25	Moncarapachense - Elvas	0:1
11.02.24	Elvas - Moncarapachense	0:1
08.10.23	Moncarapachense - Elvas	2:1

Elvas - Moncarapachense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide