Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 24

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino (Elvas)


	Elvas		Serpa

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.35	4.45
	1.65	3.37	4.79
	1.77	3.32	4.44	Watch
	1.73	3.1	4.6
	1.75	3.5	4.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.96)	3.33 ↑ (3.2)	4.55 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elvas
52.8%

Draw
27.2%

Serpa
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

28.3%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

27.1%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elvas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elvas's performance.

Serpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Serpa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elvas than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Elvas - Serpa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
60', 2 - 1, ⚽,
80', 2 - 2, ⚽,
89', 3 - 2, ⚽,
90+1', 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Elvas could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Elvas won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Elvas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Serpa	4	1	3	0	6:4	2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Elvas - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 46.34%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- O Elvas CAD
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
22.03.26	Alcochetense - Elvas	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Elvas - Oriental	0:0 ✺
08.03.26	Alverca B - Elvas	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Elvas - Lagoa	4:0 ✺
22.02.26	Elvas - Juventude de Évora	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLWW
- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
22.03.26	Serpa - Juventude de Évora	0:3 ✺
15.03.26	Louletano - Serpa	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Serpa - Sintrense	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Portimonense B - Serpa	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Serpa - Atlético da Malveira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
07.12.25	Serpa - Elvas	1:3
25.02.24	Elvas - Serpa	1:0
01.11.23	Serpa - Elvas	0:1

Elvas - Serpa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide