Match Info

Super Lig - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Kâzım Karabekir Stadyumu (Erzurum)

Referee: Taskinsoy A. B. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Digiturk


	Erzurumspor		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.60	3.10	2.70
	2.43	3.04	2.94	Watch
	2.54	3.2	3.22
	2.54	3.14	2.93	Watch
	2.5	3.05	3.1
	2.59	3.22	2.9	Watch
	2.43	3.15	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.62)	3.13 ↓ (3.23)	2.94 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzurumspor
37.6%

Draw
30.2%

Samsunspor
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

29.2%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

29.7%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzurumspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Erzurumspor - Samsunspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Samsunspor will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Taskiran E. (G) 53. Ovacikli O. 4. Gerxhaliu A. 22. Yumlu M. (C) 18. Mujakic N. 15. Giorbelidze G. 65. Rodriguez M. 42. Owusu E. 6. Baiye B. 20. Cardoso M. 10. Tozlu E.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 2. Mendes J. 16. Erakovic S. 34. Guarino G. 17. Tomasson L. 5. Yuksel C. 4. Watt E. 30. Jarju S. 8. Onur S. 11. Kilinc E. (C) 18. Bayo M.
Substitutes
77. Agyekum L. 8. Akgun S. 90. Akhundzade N. 23. Bayrak C. 19. Diabate I. 2. Ebosele F. 99. Fettahoglu M. 9. Kerk G. 3. Kirtay Y. 31. Orbanic M. (G)	23. Albak E. 25. Bayazit B. (G) 22. Cift Y. E. 10. Coulibaly T. 3. Drapinski I. 20. Kayan Y. 42. Sekongo A. 29. Tan M. 13. Ustun E. (G)
Coaches
Ozbalta S.	Fink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Cardoso M. 🟨,
33', Owusu E. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Cardoso M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jarju S. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,
57', Rodriguez M. ↓, Akgun S. ↑,
64', Onur S. 🟨,
65', Watt E. ↓, Sekongo A. ↑,
66', Tozlu E. ↓, Kerk G. ↑,
66', Cardoso M. ↓, Diabate I. ↑,
77', Baiye B. 🟨,
79', Onur S. ↓, Kayan Y. ↑,
81', Ovacikli O. ↓, Ebosele F. ↑,
86', Kilinc E. 🟨,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 16th in the Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Erzurumspor won 0.

Both teams are currently going through a difficult patch of form.

Erzurumspor could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Samsunspor: Assoumou J. (Inactive) Kaya F. (Injury) Sousa A. (Inactive) Tavsan E. (Inactive) Watt E. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Samsunspor: Coulibaly T. (Inactive).

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Erzurumspor has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:8 (averaging 0.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Erzurumspor against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 1.3:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Erzurumspor	7	2	2	3	3:11	-8	8
16	Samsunspor	7	1	1	5	6:15	-9	4

Last Results with these Odds

Erzurumspor - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 36.04%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Samsunspor - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.72%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzurumspor
Turkish Super League
11.09.26	Beşiktaş - Erzurumspor	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Erzurumspor - Konyaspor	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Gençlerbirliği - Erzurumspor	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Erzurumspor - Galatasaray	0:4 ✺
16.08.26	Amed SK - Erzurumspor	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWTLL
- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
12.09.26	Samsunspor - Çorum	1:5 ✺
06.09.26	Kocaelispor - Samsunspor	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Çaykur Rizespor - Samsunspor	0:2 ✺
17.08.26	Samsunspor - Göztepe	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
30.01.23	Samsunspor - Erzurumspor	2:1
27.08.22	Erzurumspor - Samsunspor	2:2
19.03.22	Erzurumspor - Samsunspor	1:2
23.10.21	Samsunspor - Erzurumspor	0:0
11.02.18	Samsunspor - Erzurumspor	1:0
10.09.17	Erzurumspor - Samsunspor	1:1

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