Match Info

1. Lig - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Kâzım Karabekir Stadyumu (Erzurum)

Referee: Guldibi O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Erzurumspor		Vanspor

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.4	5	Watch
	1.63	3.4	4.75
	1.68	3.48	4.79
	1.87	3.4	4.88
	2.72	2.11	4.27	Watch
	1.69	3.52	4.94
	1.66	3.45	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.68)	3.25 ↓ (3.52)	4.78 ↓ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzurumspor
51.2%

Draw
29%

Vanspor
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

26.3%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

25.7%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzurumspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Vanspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vanspor than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Erzurumspor - Vanspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Erzurumspor will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Orbanic M. (G) 53. Ovacikli O. 22. Yumlu M. 3. Kirtay Y. 15. Giorbelidze G. 6. Baiye B. 77. Keser B. 24. Crociata G. 8. Akgun S. 99. Fettahoglu M. 10. Tozlu E.	25. Akbaba C. (C) 13. Oulare N. 4. Dikmen E. 40. Lucas Africo 22. Destici S. 76. Kara B. C. 41. Ozcan M. 11. Xesc 8. Traore A. 10. Jefferson 19. Bikoue
Substitutes
11. Akpinar M. 1. Anapa E. (G) 35. Erdem E. 4. Gerxhaliu A. 83. Onal M. 65. Rodriguez M. 7. Sever I. 29. Sylla C. 2. Ulgen A. 9. Yener H.	18. Bilal H. 65. Bingol M. 53. Cavusoglu M. 1. Damlu A. (G) 61. Genc F. C. 6. Jevsenak Z. 9. Kor B. 17. Manis M. 44. Secgin E. 7. Vlachomitros A.
Coaches
Ozbalta S.	Kutlu H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Bikoue 🟨,
35', Oulare N. 🟨,
45', Akgun S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Akgun S. ↓, Akpinar M. ↑,
55', 1 - 0, Tozlu E. ⚽, Crociata G. (A),
61', Ozcan M. ↓, Secgin E. ↑,
66', Kirtay Y. 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Orbanic M. (Own goal),
73', Traore A. ↓, Jevsenak Z. ↑,
74', Fettahoglu M. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
75', Yumlu M. ↓, Gerxhaliu A. ↑,
80', Jefferson 🟨,
83', Kara B. C. ↓, Bilal H. ↑,
88', Bilal H. 🟨,
90+3', Keser B. 🟨,
90+3', Destici S. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

Erzurumspor is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vanspor has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Erzurumspor is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Erzurumspor: Karaca A. (Inactive) Kilinc K. (Inactive) Saglik S. (Inactive) Sasi F. (Inactive)

There will not play in Vanspor: Beler M. (Inactive) Coksu M. (Inactive) Olmez S. (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzurumspor
Turkish First League
28.09.25	Serik Belediyespor - Erzurumspor	1:1 ✺
24.09.25	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Adana Demirspor - Erzurumspor	0:3 ✺
15.09.25	Erzurumspor - Sakaryaspor	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Sarıyer - Erzurumspor	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTWTW
- Vanspor FK
Turkish First League
29.09.25	Vanspor - Amed SK	3:0 ✺
24.09.25	Bodrumspor - Vanspor	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Vanspor - Sivasspor	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Çorum - Vanspor	0:0 ✺
29.08.25	Vanspor - Bandırmaspor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLTTL

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