Match Info

1st Division - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Blue Water Arena (Esbjerg)

Referee: Bogelund J. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Esbjerg		HB Køge

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.70	3.20	Watch
	2.05	3.50	3.10
	1.94	3.70	3.50
	2.16	3.83	3.42
	1.9	3.87	3.59	Watch
	2.03	3.70	3.35
	2.05	3.70	3.21	Watch
	2.01	3.50	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.93)	3.69 ↓ (3.74)	3.32 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Esbjerg
46.4%

Draw
25.4%

HB Køge
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

25%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

24.8%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Esbjerg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

HB Køge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Esbjerg than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HB Køge than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Esbjerg - HB Køge Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Esbjerg will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Esbjerg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lykke W. (G) 2. Aronsson F. 25. Bjerge G. 5. Foss J. 19. Strand S. 8. Maden M. 22. Hvidt B. 7. Strunck N. (C) 14. Kolawole J. 80. Brajanac M. 9. Ampofo J.	1. Sommergaard N. (G) 4. Hald S. 23. Westergren M. 22. Jakobsen M. 2. Bust L. 6. Brodersen R. 19. Semovski E. 7. Jensen M. (C) 28. Larsen G. 25. Isaki F. 9. Thomsen T.
Substitutes
99. Ahmad A. 31. Bennedsgaard J. H. 11. Bjur P. 10. Boesen O. 18. Hansen M. 34. Jorgensen E. (G) 36. Kristiansen A. 30. Kruse M. 4. Tjornelund P.	17. Achton L. 5. Culhaci G. 10. Jensen Tue C. 16. Mols C. (G) 8. Romer M. 14. Sorensen V. 27. Stolshoj N. 30. Villumsen E. 11. Warming M.
Coaches
Manoharan S.	Pedersen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Ampofo J. ⚽, Kolawole J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', 2 - 0, Strunck N. ⚽, Kolawole J. (A),
49', 2 - 1, Thomsen T. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Aronsson F. ↓, Tjornelund P. ↑,
58', Semovski E. ↓, Stolshoj N. ↑,
58', Hald S. ↓, Achton L. ↑,
59', Kolawole J. ↓, Bjur P. ↑,
62', 2 - 2, Brodersen R. ⚽, Isaki F. (A),
66', Hvidt B. ↓, Boesen O. ↑,
81', Bust L. ↓, Romer M. ↑,
81', Westergren M. ↓, Sorensen V. ↑,
81', Isaki F. ↓, Culhaci G. ↑,
84', Ampofo J. ↓, Kruse M. ↑,
84', Maden M. ↓, Hansen M. ↑,
88', Strand S. 🟨,
90+5', Manoharan S. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 11 in the zone 1st Division (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone 1st Division (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Esbjerg won 4.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Køge may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Esbjerg could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Esbjerg won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:13. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Esbjerg won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of Danish 1 Division for now

Koge: 1.02% Esbjerg: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Koge	9	1	4	4	11:17	-6	7
12	Esbjerg	9	1	2	6	10:19	-9	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Esbjerg fB
Danish 1 Division
05.09.26	Fredericia - Esbjerg	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Esbjerg - Vendsyssel	0:2 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
25.08.26	Skive IK - Esbjerg	1:5 ✺
Danish 1 Division
21.08.26	Vejle Boldklub Kolding - Esbjerg	4:2 ✺
15.08.26	Esbjerg - Hobro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLWLL
- HB Køge
Danish 1 Division
04.09.26	HB Køge - Hillerød	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Aalborg BK - HB Køge	0:0 ✺
23.08.26	HB Køge - Kolding IF	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	HB Køge - Hvidovre	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Aarhus Fremad - HB Køge	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
06.03.26	HB Køge - Esbjerg	0:1
01.09.25	Esbjerg - HB Køge	3:2
28.02.25	HB Køge - Esbjerg	0:2
24.08.24	Esbjerg - HB Køge	4:1
07.05.22	HB Køge - Esbjerg	2:1
23.04.22	Esbjerg - HB Køge	0:0
19.11.21	HB Køge - Esbjerg	3:0

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