Match Info

1st Division - Promotion Group - Round 28

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Blue Water Arena (Esbjerg)

Referee: Nielsen J. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Esbjerg		Horsens

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.4	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.6
	2.75	3.25	2.45	Watch
	2.93	3.36	2.51
	2.75	3.26	2.54	Watch
	2.7	3	2.4
	2.87	3.2	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.52)	3.2 ↑ (3.15)	2.48 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Esbjerg
33.7%

Draw
29%

Horsens
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

29.5%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

30.5%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Esbjerg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Horsens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Esbjerg than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Horsens than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Horsens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	37.5%	62.5%

Esbjerg - Horsens Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Horsens will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Horsens: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Horsens (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. McCrorie R. (G) 4. Tjornelund P. 3. Skipper A. (C) 25. Renecke W. 19. Strand S. 12. Lausen A. 18. Hansen M. 6. Vigen L. 8. Maden M. 7. From L. 80. Brajanac M.	1. Delac M. (C) 26. Palsson V. 35. Kupijbida M. 24. Kolskogen O. 12. Tape C. 17. Herdonsson A. 20. Lusavec K. 27. Ouorou Y. 14. Madsen J. 10. Kirkegaard K. 15. Justinussen A.
Substitutes
23. Ammitzboll A. 31. Bennedsgaard J. H. 32. Blicher N. 5. Foss J. 22. Hvidt B. 14. Kolawole J. 16. Kristensen K. (G) 17. Lucena J. 15. Sonderskov A.	29. Brandhof F. 5. Bruus A. 30. Doua S. 4. Hausner S. 7. Milicevic I. 16. Moro A. 28. Saine A. 25. Sene F. 23. Smarsch D. (G)
Coaches
Manoharan S.	Zimling N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', From L. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Skipper A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Ouorou Y. ↓, Saine A. ↑,
63', Kirkegaard K. ↓, Milicevic I. ↑,
71', Hansen M. ↓, Ammitzboll A. ↑,
71', Vigen L. ↓, Kolawole J. ↑,
78', Skipper A. ↓, Foss J. ↑,
81', Herdonsson A. ↓, Moro A. ↑,
81', Justinussen A. ↓, Brandhof F. ↑,
82', Madsen J. 🟨,
87', Renecke W. ↓, Lucena J. ↑,
90+2', Lucena J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Esbjerg won 1.

Recent performances by Esbjerg have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Horsens is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Esbjerg won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:27. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Esbjerg won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 0.9:0.8).

Outrights of Danish 1 Division for now

Esbjerg: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Esbjerg	9	1	2	6	10:19	-9	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Esbjerg fB
Danish 1 Division
24.04.26	Lyngby BK - Esbjerg	5:0 ✺
21.04.26	Horsens - Esbjerg	4:1 ✺
17.04.26	Esbjerg - Hillerød	0:0 ✺
10.04.26	Esbjerg - Hvidovre	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Kolding IF - Esbjerg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLTWT
- AC Horsens
Danish 1 Division
25.04.26	Hvidovre - Horsens	1:1 ✺
21.04.26	Horsens - Esbjerg	4:1 ✺
17.04.26	Kolding IF - Horsens	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Hillerød - Horsens	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Horsens - Lyngby BK	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
21.04.26	Horsens - Esbjerg	4:1
28.02.26	Esbjerg - Horsens	2:1
20.09.25	Horsens - Esbjerg	1:0
03.05.25	Esbjerg - Horsens	0:1
18.04.25	Horsens - Esbjerg	3:2
14.03.25	Horsens - Esbjerg	2:1
04.08.24	Esbjerg - Horsens	0:1

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