Match Info

1st Division - Promotion Group - Round 26

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Hybel Arena Horsens (Horsens)

Referee: Stegemuller Fogh Simbold O. A. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Horsens		Esbjerg

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.57	Watch
	2.4	3.35	2.75	Watch
	2.54	3.48	2.75
	2.34	3.51	2.84	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.6
	2.57	3.32	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.06)	3.34 ↓ (3.38)	2.69 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Horsens
37.7%

Draw
27.8%

Esbjerg
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

27.5%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

27.5%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Horsens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Horsens's form might have worsened.

Esbjerg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Esbjerg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Horsens than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Horsens, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Esbjerg than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Esbjerg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Horsens - Esbjerg Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Horsens will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Esbjerg will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Esbjerg: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Delac M. (C) 26. Palsson V. 35. Kupijbida M. 24. Kolskogen O. 12. Tape C. 17. Herdonsson A. 20. Lusavec K. 27. Ouorou Y. 14. Madsen J. 10. Kirkegaard K. 15. Justinussen A.	21. McCrorie R. (G) 4. Tjornelund P. 3. Skipper A. (C) 25. Renecke W. 19. Strand S. 12. Lausen A. 18. Hansen M. 11. Bjur P. 8. Maden M. 7. From L. 80. Brajanac M.
Substitutes
9. Baturina R. 5. Bruus A. 30. Doua S. 4. Hausner S. 33. Ludwig A. 7. Milicevic I. 28. Saine A. 21. Samb M. M. 23. Smarsch D. (G)	23. Ammitzboll A. 27. Baldursson B. 31. Bennedsgaard J. H. 5. Foss J. 14. Kolawole J. 16. Kristensen K. (G) 17. Lucena J. 15. Sonderskov A. 6. Vigen L.
Coaches
Zimling N.	Manoharan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Brajanac M. ⚽, From L. (A),
9', 1 - 1, Kirkegaard K. ⚽,
11', 2 - 1, Kirkegaard K. ⚽,
39', Bjur P. ↓, Kolawole J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 3 - 1, Justinussen A. ⚽,
57', Renecke W. 🟨,
62', 4 - 1, Madsen J. ⚽, Kirkegaard K. (A),
63', Ouorou Y. ↓, Milicevic I. ↑,
68', Lausen A. ↓, Vigen L. ↑,
68', Skipper A. ↓, Foss J. ↑,
68', Hansen M. ↓, Ammitzboll A. ↑,
73', Justinussen A. ↓, Baturina R. ↑,
73', Madsen J. ↓, Bruus A. ↑,
77', Maden M. ↓, Bennedsgaard J. H. ↑,
85', Palsson V. ↓, Saine A. ↑,
85', Herdonsson A. ↓, Doua S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Horsens won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Horsens will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Horsens won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:23. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Horsens won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.5:1.4).

Outrights of Danish 1 Division for now

Esbjerg: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Esbjerg	9	1	2	6	10:19	-9	5

Last Results with these Odds

Esbjerg - the odds 3.39 are the expected chance of winning is 27.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Horsens
Danish 1 Division
17.04.26	Kolding IF - Horsens	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Hillerød - Horsens	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Horsens - Lyngby BK	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Horsens - Hvidovre	0:4 ✺
14.03.26	Aarhus Fremad - Horsens	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WTWLT
- Esbjerg fB
Danish 1 Division
17.04.26	Esbjerg - Hillerød	0:0 ✺
10.04.26	Esbjerg - Hvidovre	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Kolding IF - Esbjerg	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Aalborg BK - Esbjerg	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Esbjerg - Hillerød	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
28.02.26	Esbjerg - Horsens	2:1
20.09.25	Horsens - Esbjerg	1:0
03.05.25	Esbjerg - Horsens	0:1
18.04.25	Horsens - Esbjerg	3:2
14.03.25	Horsens - Esbjerg	2:1
04.08.24	Esbjerg - Horsens	0:1
13.03.22	Horsens - Esbjerg	0:0

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