Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 10 - ROUND 13

Date: 2 December 2023, Saturday


	Espeleño		Ciudad de Lucena

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.9	2.2
	3.19	2.88	2.21
	3.19	2.88	2.22
	3.14	3.02	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↓ (3.99)	2.92 ↓ (3.07)	2.21 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Espeleño
28.5%

Draw
30.8%

Ciudad de Lucena
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

29.3%

48.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

28.8%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Espeleño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Espeleño's performance.

Ciudad de Lucena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ciudad de Lucena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Espeleño than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Espeleño that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ciudad de Lucena than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ciudad de Lucena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Recent matches Espeleño is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ciudad de Lucena is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Ciudad de Lucena is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Espeleño won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Espeleño won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Espeleño
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
26.11.23	Ayamonte - Espeleño	1:0 ✺
19.11.23	Espeleño - Coria CF	0:0 ✺
12.11.23	La Palma - Espeleño	1:2 ✺
05.11.23	Espeleño - Xerez Deportivo	1:0 ✺
29.10.23	Bollullos - Espeleño	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LTWWL
- CD Ciudad de Lucena
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
26.11.23	Ciudad de Lucena - Gerena	2:0 ✺
19.11.23	Sevilla C - Ciudad de Lucena	0:2 ✺
12.11.23	Ayamonte - Ciudad de Lucena	0:0 ✺
05.11.23	Ciudad de Lucena - Coria CF	3:2 ✺
29.10.23	La Palma - Ciudad de Lucena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
26.03.23	Ciudad de Lucena - Espeleño	2:1
03.12.22	Espeleño - Ciudad de Lucena	0:0
16.12.18	Ciudad de Lucena - Espeleño	4:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
25.02.18	Ciudad de Lucena - Espeleño	4:3
12.10.17	Espeleño - Ciudad de Lucena	4:4

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