Match Info

Serie D - Group C - Round 34

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday


	Este		Luparense

	1	X	2
	2.28	3	2.92
	1.71	3.65	4.40	Watch
	2.35	3.15	3.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.32)	3.27 ↑ (3.08)	3.45 ↑ (2.97)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Este
44.2%

Draw
28.6%

Luparense
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

29.7%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

28.9%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Este has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Luparense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Este than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Este that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luparense than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Tramonte F. ⚽,
20', 2 - 0, Aloia D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group C (Play Offs: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Este won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Este may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Este won 1 match, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Este won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.3:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Luparense	6	4	2	0	14:3	11	14
10	Este	6	2	1	3	5:5	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

Este - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 39.49%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Luparense - the odds 2.97 are the expected chance of winning is 30.78%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Este
Italian Serie D - Group C
17.04.26	Este - Union Clodiense	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Legnago Salus - Este	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Este - Calvi Noale	3:1 ✺
29.03.26	Brian Lignano - Este	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Este - Bassano Virtus	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TTWLL
- Luparense FC
Italian Serie D - Group C
26.04.26	Luparense - Vigasio	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Conegliano - Luparense	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Luparense - Mestre	0:1 penalties ✺
02.04.26	Obermais - Luparense	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Luparense - San Luigi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group C
21.12.25	Luparense - Este	1:1
13.10.24	Este - Luparense	1:1
16.12.23	Este - Luparense	0:0
16.04.23	Luparense - Este	1:1
04.12.22	Este - Luparense	1:1
09.04.22	Este - Luparense	2:2
28.11.21	Luparense - Este	0:0

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