Match Info

UEFA Nations League - League C - Round 4

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday

Location: A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)

Referee: Dickinson D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Disney+, Globoplay, SporTV 3
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 11
Denmark	TV2 Play
Estonia	ETV 2, Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Iceland	SÝN Sport, SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Vision+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+


	Estonia		Iceland

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.8	1.62
	5.50	3.60	1.60
	5.9	3.6	1.58
	6.1	4.15	1.63
	5.6	3.95	1.61	Watch
	5.95	3.75	1.58
	6.02	3.95	1.64	Watch
	5.4	3.9	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.75 ↑ (4.54)	3.84 ↑ (3.82)	1.61 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estonia
16.5%

Draw
24.6%

Iceland
58.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

24.6%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Iceland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.6%	17.9%	79.5%

Estonia - Iceland Predictions

Users Predictions: Iceland will win (31 of 38 users predict this - 81.58%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.25% – 93.91%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Iceland will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Igonen M. (G) Degerfors 3. Paskotsi M. (C) Gent 2. Kuusk M. Polonia Warszawa 5. Tougjas E. Halmstad 6. Peetson R. Levadia 14. Kristal P. Thun 20. Poom M. Trencin 10. Palumets K. FC Kosice 13. Saliste J. Levadia 7. Saarma R. FK Pardubice 17. Mannilaan M. Kalju	12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G) Brentford 4. Palsson V. Horsens 16. Thordarson S. T. Hannover 23. Magnusson H. Atromitos 3. Gretarsson D. L. Aarhus 10. Sigurdsson G. Vikingur Reykjavik 8. Johannesson I. 1. FC Koln 7. Haraldsson H. Lille 22. Gudjohnsen A. Blackburn 18. Anderson M. Aarhus 9. Oskarsson O. (C) Real Sociedad
Substitutes
11. Ainsalu M. Levadia 1. Grunvald E. (G) Flora 4. Kait M. Thun 23. Liivak F. Levadia 9. Mustmaa K. Cukaricki 19. Schjonning-Larsen M. Kilmarnock 15. Skvortsov M. Levadia 8. Soomets M. Kolding IF 21. Tamm A. O. Ljubljana 18. Tammik T. Levadia 16. Tamm J. Sepsi 22. Vallner K. (G) Levadia	6. Baldursson A. Kasimpasa 19. Bjarnason B. Sonderjyske 13. Einarsson A. (G) Breidablik 17. Gunnarsson A. Qatar SC 20. Helgason T. J. Venezia 1. Runarsson R. A. (G) FC Copenhagen 15. Sampsted A. G.A. Eagles 21. Sigurdsson A. Kalamata 11. Thorsteinsson J. Hertha Berlin 5. Thorvaldsson I. Lyngby 2. Tomasson L. Samsunspor 14. Willumsson B. Groningen
Coaches
Henn J.	Gunnlaugsson A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Gretarsson D. L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Saliste J. ↓, Schjonning-Larsen M. ↑,
61', Mannilaan M. ↓, Mustmaa K. ↑,
61', Palumets K. ↓, Kait M. ↑,
67', Magnusson H. ↓, Tomasson L. ↑,
67', Sigurdsson G. ↓, Willumsson B. ↑,
68', Kristal P. ↓, Skvortsov M. ↑,
84', Schjonning-Larsen M. 🟨,

Preview

Estonia is ranked FIFA: 127., and Iceland is ranked FIFA: 74..

Iceland carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Estonia has recorded 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:4 (averaging 0.6:0.8 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estonia
UEFA Nations League
03.10.26	Estonia - Luxembourg	1:0 ✺
29.09.26	Bulgaria - Estonia	0:0 ✺
26.09.26	Iceland - Estonia	1:1 ✺
Baltic Cup
09.06.26	Estonia - Lithuania	1:0 ✺
06.06.26	Estonia - Faroe Islands	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.8 WTTWW
- Iceland
UEFA Nations League
03.10.26	Iceland - Bulgaria	3:0 ✺
29.09.26	Luxembourg - Iceland	0:3 ✺
26.09.26	Iceland - Estonia	1:1 ✺
Friendly
09.06.26	Argentina - Iceland	3:0 ✺
31.05.26	Japan - Iceland	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Nations League
26.09.26	Iceland - Estonia	1:1
Friendly
08.01.23	Iceland - Estonia	1:1
15.01.19	Estonia - Iceland	0:0
31.03.15	Estonia - Iceland	1:1
04.06.14	Iceland - Estonia	1:0

Estonia - Iceland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide