Match Info

UEFA Nations League - League C - Round 1

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Laugardalsvöllur (Reykjavík)

Referee: Milanovic M. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Maximo 360
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Disney+, Globoplay, SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 5
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN
Estonia	ETV 2, Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Germany	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Maldives	Medianet
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	Exxen
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Iceland		Estonia

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.75	11.00
	1.25	5.50	10.50
	1.27	5.60	10.50
	1.26	6.37	12.00
	1.27	5.52	11.46	Watch
	1.23	6.30	11.00
	1.27	6.32	12.10	Watch
	1.23	6.00	11.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.41)	5.92 ↑ (4.4)	11.2 ↑ (7.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Iceland
75.5%

Draw
16%

Estonia
8.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

21.2%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Iceland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Iceland's performance.

Estonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.7%	4.9%	2.4%

Iceland - Estonia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Iceland (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Iceland will win (38 of 41 users predict this - 92.68%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.71% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Iceland will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Iceland (votes: 8 - 80%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G) Brentford 4. Palsson V. Horsens 16. Thordarson S. T. Hannover 3. Gretarsson D. L. Aarhus 19. Ellertsson M. E. Genoa 20. Thorsteinsson J. Hertha Berlin 7. Haraldsson H. Lille 8. Johannesson I. 1. FC Koln 11. Gudmundsson A. Lazio 22. Gudjohnsen A. Blackburn 9. Oskarsson O. (C) Real Sociedad	1. Hein K. (G) Werder Bremen 3. Paskotsi M. Gent 6. Peetson R. Levadia 2. Kuusk M. Polonia Warszawa 18. Mets K. (C) Bochum 19. Schjonning-Larsen M. Kilmarnock 11. Ainsalu M. Levadia 10. Palumets K. FC Kosice 20. Poom M. Trencin 4. Kait M. Thun 9. Mustmaa K. Cukaricki
Substitutes
18. Anderson M. Aarhus 6. Baldursson A. Kasimpasa 13. Einarsson A. (G) Breidablik 17. Gunnarsson A. Qatar SC 15. Ingason K. M. Brann 23. Magnusson H. Atromitos 1. Runarsson R. A. (G) FC Copenhagen 21. Sigurdsson A. Kalamata 10. Sigurdsson G. Vikingur Reykjavik 5. Thorvaldsson I. Lyngby 2. Tomasson L. Samsunspor 14. Willumsson B. Groningen	12. Igonen M. (G) Degerfors 14. Kristal P. Thun 23. Liivak F. Levadia 21. Mannilaan M. Kalju 17. Miller M. Paide Linnameeskond 7. Saarma R. FK Pardubice 13. Saliste J. Levadia 15. Skvortsov M. Levadia 8. Soomets M. Kolding IF 16. Tamm A. O. Ljubljana 5. Tougjas E. Halmstad 22. Vallner K. (G) Levadia
Coaches
Gunnlaugsson A.	Henn J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Thorvaldsson I. ↑,
45', 1 - 0, Gudjohnsen A. ⚽, Haraldsson H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Palumets K. (Penalty Awarded),
54', Mets K. 🟨,
61', Ainsalu M. ↓, Kristal P. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Paskotsi M. ⚽, Peetson R. (A),
75', Thorsteinsson J. ↓, Sigurdsson A. ↑,
75', Johannesson I. ↓, Sigurdsson G. ↑,
78', Mustmaa K. ↓, Tamm A. ↑,
81', Peetson R. 🟨,
84', Thordarson S. T. 🟨,
84', Ellertsson M. E. ↓, Tomasson L. ↑,
85', Gudjohnsen A. ↓, Ingason K. M. ↑,
86', Kait M. ↓, Soomets M. ↑,

Preview

Iceland is ranked FIFA: 74., and Estonia is ranked FIFA: 127..

Iceland holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Iceland has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:2 (averaging 0.8:0.5 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Iceland
Friendly
09.06.26	Argentina - Iceland	3:0 ✺
31.05.26	Japan - Iceland	1:0 ✺
31.03.26	Haiti - Iceland	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Canada - Iceland	2:2 ✺
25.02.26	Mexico - Iceland	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLTTL
- Estonia
Baltic Cup
09.06.26	Estonia - Lithuania	1:0 ✺
06.06.26	Estonia - Faroe Islands	1:0 ✺
FIFA Series
30.03.26	Rwanda - Estonia	2:0 ✺
27.03.26	Kenya - Estonia	1:2 penalties ✺
Friendly
18.11.25	Cyprus - Estonia	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
08.01.23	Iceland - Estonia	1:1
15.01.19	Estonia - Iceland	0:0
31.03.15	Estonia - Iceland	1:1
04.06.14	Iceland - Estonia	1:0

Iceland - Estonia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide