Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 8

Date: 23 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Caseros (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Barraza J. (Arg)


	Estudiantes de Caseros		Arsenal Sarandí

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.88	3
	2.6	2.85	2.75
	2.65	2.85	2.85
	2.77	2.78	3.05
	2.77	2.78	3.05
	2.6	2.88	2.8
	2.61	2.9	2.8
	2.65	2.85	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (3.14)	2.85 ↓ (2.86)	2.89 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estudiantes de Caseros
34.9%

Draw
32.8%

Arsenal Sarandí
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

32.6%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

32.3%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estudiantes de Caseros has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estudiantes de Caseros's performance.

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arsenal Sarandí might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes de Caseros than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estudiantes de Caseros that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal Sarandí could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	87.5%	0%

Estudiantes de Caseros - Arsenal Sarandí Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. CA Estudiantes will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Budino M. (G) 4. Del Col M. 2. Perales V. 6. Benitez J. 3. Fernandez N. 8. Miranda F. 5. Lugo M. 10. Acosta E. 11. Contreras E. 7. Fagundez F. 9. Gorla F. J.	1. Sultani T. (G) 4. Amaya A. 2. Sosa A. 6. Bernardi B. 3. Cabrera I. 8. Brestt F. 5. Domingo N. 11. Serrano V. 7. Charparin I. 9. Benitez M. 10. Ortiz T.
Substitutes
12. Amade L. (G) 19. Beron J. 15. Brinone S. 13. Ledesma D. 18. Luna E. 20. Sandoval I. 16. Valdivia M. 14. Valenzuela I. 17. Vallejos I.	14. Diaz G. 15. Frascone N. 16. Krilanovich J. 19. Pavia K. 20. Peinipil J. 12. Rosa N. (G) 13. Saiz J. 18. Sanchez V. 17. Segovia A.
Coaches
Otta W.	Kohan T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, Fernandez N. ⚽,
49', Serrano V. 🟨,
51', Charparin I. ↓, Segovia A. ↑,
51', Brestt F. ↓, Peinipil J. ↑,
62', Gorla F. J. ↓, Beron J. ↑,
64', 🟨,
67', Benitez M. ↓, Pavia K. ↑,
70', Fagundez F. ↓, Sandoval I. ↑,
70', Acosta E. ↓, Luna E. ↑,
73', (Pen),
73', Sosa A. 🟨,
75', 🟨,
76', Bernardi B. ↓, Sanchez V. ↑,
76', Amaya A. ↓, Krilanovich J. ↑,
80', Miranda F. ↓, Brinone S. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Recent matches CA Estudiantes is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arsenal Sarandí is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches CA Estudiantes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Estudiantes de Caseros
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.03.24	San Martín de Tucumán - Estudiantes de Caseros	2:0 ✺
09.03.24	Estudiantes de Caseros - Chacarita Juniors	0:0 ✺
02.03.24	Estudiantes de Caseros - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
23.02.24	Talleres de Remedios de Escalada - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:1 ✺
17.02.24	Estudiantes de Caseros - Quilmes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTTWL
- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.03.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	2:1 ✺
09.03.24	Quilmes - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0 ✺
03.03.24	Arsenal Sarandí - San Miguel	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
18.02.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Deportivo Maipú	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Argentina
28.08.19	Arsenal Sarandí - Estudiantes de Caseros	2:3

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