Match Info

WSL - Round 5

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Goodison Park (Liverpool)

Referee: Davis W. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Everton		Birmingham City LFC

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.7	4.2
	1.75	3.4	3.75
	1.9	3.83	3.81
	1.91	3.65	3.66	Watch
	1.88	3.75	3.55
	1.77	3.74	4.24
	1.8	3.55	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.08)	3.66 ↑ (3.35)	3.86 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Everton
50.8%

Draw
25.2%

Birmingham City LFC
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

27.5%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

27%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Everton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Everton's performance.

Birmingham City LFC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Everton than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Everton that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City LFC than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Everton - Birmingham City LFC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brosnan C. (C) 2. Blundell H. 5. Layzell N. 25. Silcock H. 33. Pacheco M. 6. Hayashi H. 29. Momiki Y. 30. Mace R. 8. van Gool R. 18. Vignola O. 21. Kramzar Z.	23. Baggaley S. (G) 3. Levasseur M. 21. Turner M. (C) 30. Herron N. 18. McKenna R. 26. Miyagawa A. 8. Naalsund L. 16. Crosthwaite L. 7. Lee Geum-Min 22. Hurtre O. 20. Effa Effa C.
Substitutes
11. Cain H. 20. Finnigan M. 24. Foster R. (G) 22. Galli A. 3. Ishikawa R. 13. Kitagawa H. 9. McNamara H. 17. Mouchon N. 7. Wheeler C.	14. Amano S. 6. Cooke S. 19. Cornet C. 2. Harris M. 15. Holloway R. 10. Leidhammar W. 27. Sarri V. 40. Startup K. (G) 1. Thomas L. (G)
Coaches
Phelan S.	Merricks A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Mace R. ⚽, Momiki Y. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Hurtre O. ⚽, Effa Effa C. (A),
31', Kramzar Z. ↓, McNamara H. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Effa Effa C. ↓, Sarri V. ↑,
60', Lee Geum-Min ↓, Amano S. ↑,
62', van Gool R. ↓, Cain H. ↑,
62', Silcock H. ↓, Ishikawa R. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Mace R. ⚽, Vignola O. (A),
85', Hayashi H. ↓, Wheeler C. ↑,
86', Momiki Y. ↓, Kitagawa H. ↑,
88', Naalsund L. ↓, Leidhammar W. ↑,
90+4', McNamara H. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 7th and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Everton won 3.

Everton has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Birmingham has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Everton could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Everton is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Everton: Gabarro I. (Knee Injury) Holmgaard K. (Knee Injury) Issy (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Birmingham: Magill S. (Maternity leave).

Doubtful / questionable for Everton: Rantala J. (Lacking Match Fitness).

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Everton has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:10 (averaging 1.3:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Everton against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 6:6 goals (averaging 1.2:1.2 per game).

Outrights of English WSL for now

Everton W: 0.35% Birmingham W: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Everton W	5	3	0	2	4:4	0	9
13	Birmingham W	5	0	2	3	7:12	-5	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Everton LFC
English WSL
27.09.26	Liverpool LFC - Everton	2:0 ✺
English League Cup Women
23.09.26	Everton - Birmingham City LFC	2:0 ✺
English WSL
20.09.26	West Ham - Everton	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Everton - Charlton Athletic	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Crystal Palace - Everton	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWWWL
- Birmingham City LFC
English League Cup Women
30.09.26	Birmingham City LFC - Liverpool LFC	3:4 ✺
English WSL
27.09.26	Birmingham City LFC - Crystal Palace	3:3 ✺
English League Cup Women
23.09.26	Everton - Birmingham City LFC	2:0 ✺
English WSL
19.09.26	Chelsea - Birmingham City LFC	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Birmingham City LFC - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup Women
23.09.26	Everton - Birmingham City LFC	2:0
English FA Cup Women
29.01.23	Everton - Birmingham City LFC	0:1
English WSL
01.04.22	Birmingham City LFC - Everton	0:0
25.09.21	Everton - Birmingham City LFC	3:1
11.03.21	Birmingham City LFC - Everton	0:4
07.02.21	Everton - Birmingham City LFC	1:1
English FA Cup Women
30.09.20	Birmingham City LFC - Everton	0:3

Everton - Birmingham City LFC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide