Match Info

Challenger Pro League - Round 5

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Yvan Georges (Virton)

Referee: Van De Velde D. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Excelsior Virton		Genk U23

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.50	3.00
	2.05	3.50	2.87
	2.07	3.45	3.00	Watch
	2.07	4.23	3.14
	2.14	3.97	2.9	Watch
	2.01	4.15	3.00
	2.10	3.66	3.14
	2.03	3.50	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (2.02)	3.75 ↑ (3.72)	3 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior Virton
44.7%

Draw
24.6%

Genk U23
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

25.2%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

24.1%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior Virton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Genk U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior Virton than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genk U23 than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Excelsior Virton - Genk U23 Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Virton will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Genk U23 will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Schrevel C. (G) 22. Assengue S. 4. Kari E. 24. Lambotte H. 3. Tchaptchet A. 18. Ntenda J. 8. Arib G. 13. Dembele A. (C) 10. Wade P. 11. Hachem A. 19. Goudani I.	61. Van Laere D. (G) 2. Pierre K. 73. Mbavu E. (C) 59. Kapers W. 55. Yoshinaga Y. 56. De Wannemacker A. 53. Mocsnik M. 79. Nzoko D. 76. Driessen J. 78. Achahbar K. 66. Coenen J.
Substitutes
16. Closset N. (G) 23. Diop A. 6. Guillaume M. 9. Inchaud M. 14. Maiorano L. 2. Mantsounga B. 25. Simba W. 17. Tormin T. 21. Valerio A.	82. Balde T. 72. Barry A. 87. Boev M. (G) 83. De Groof J. 54. El Morabet S. 50. Kone M. 22. Manguelle B. 75. Ogbeiwi P. 34. Palacios A.
Coaches
Brncic D.	de Camargo I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', De Wannemacker A. ↓, Ogbeiwi P. ↑,
22', Mocsnik M. 🟨,
26', Kapers W. 🟥,
28', 1 - 0, Goudani I. (Penalty Awarded),
37', Mocsnik M. ↓, Palacios A. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 2 - 0, Kari E. ⚽, Hachem A. (A),
65', Tchaptchet A. 🟨,
71', Wade P. ↓, Inchaud M. ↑,
71', Kari E. ↓, Simba W. ↑,
71', Yoshinaga Y. ↓, Barry A. ↑,
72', Achahbar K. ↓, Manguelle B. ↑,
72', Nzoko D. ↓, Balde T. ↑,
88', Goudani I. ↓, Maiorano L. ↑,
89', Arib G. ↓, Valerio A. ↑,
90', 3 - 0, Inchaud M. ⚽, Hachem A. (A),
90+1', Ntenda J. ↓, Mantsounga B. ↑,

Preview

Virton is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Genk U23 has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Virton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Virton will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Virton won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Virton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Virton	6	3	1	2	11:6	5	10
10	Genk U23	6	2	1	3	12:14	-2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Genk U23 - the odds 3.28 are the expected chance of winning is 28.53%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Virton
Belgian Challenger Pro League
30.08.26	Excelsior Virton - Francs Borains	0:1 ✺
21.08.26	Anderlecht U23 - Excelsior Virton	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Excelsior Virton - Lierse	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Progrès Niedercorn - Excelsior Virton	1:1 ✺
18.07.26	Atert Bissen - Excelsior Virton	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LWWTW
- Genk U23
Belgian Challenger Pro League
05.09.26	Genk U23 - Hasselt	3:0 ✺
28.08.26	Lokeren - Genk U23	2:4 ✺
23.08.26	Genk U23 - RFC Liège	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Eupen - Genk U23	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.07.26	Eendracht Termien - Genk U23	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Challenger Pro League
12.05.23	Excelsior Virton - Genk U23	3:1
17.03.23	Genk U23 - Excelsior Virton	1:1
12.02.23	Excelsior Virton - Genk U23	0:1
11.09.22	Genk U23 - Excelsior Virton	0:1

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