Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 4 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Hamz Stadium (Kampala)

Where to Watch on TV:


Uganda	FUFA TV, Sanyuka TV


	Express		Calvary

	1	X	2
	1.31	4.95	6.7
	1.32	4.42	7.33
	1.3	4.4	9.5
	1.28	4.3	11.4
	1.41	4	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.53)	4.41 ↑ (3.73)	8.14 ↑ (5.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Express
68.4%

Draw
20.5%

Calvary
11.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

24.4%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

17.9%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Express has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Express's performance.

Calvary has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Express than the current prediction. (-24.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Express that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calvary than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Calvary could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Express - Calvary Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Basangwa R. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
48', 2 - 0, Ssenoga M. K. (Penalty Awarded),
55', 3 - 0, Ssenoga M. K. ⚽,
75', 4 - 0, Asiimwe H. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League).

In recent matches, Express has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Calvary has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Express may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Express is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Express FC
Ugandan Super League
26.11.25	Express - Vipers	0:3 ✺
20.11.25	Lugazi Municipal - Express	0:0 ✺
05.11.25	Express - Mbarara City	4:1 ✺
30.10.25	Bul - Express	0:0 ✺
23.10.25	Express - Kampala City Council	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LTWTL
- FC Calvary
Ugandan Super League
25.11.25	NEC FC - Calvary	1:0 ✺
19.11.25	Calvary - UPDF	0:1 ✺
07.11.25	Calvary - Entebbe UPPC	2:4 ✺
31.10.25	Kampala City Council - Calvary	4:2 ✺
22.10.25	Maroons - Calvary	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLLT

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