Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Hamz Stadium (Kampala)


	Express		Mbarara City

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.2	4.35
	1.68	3.24	4.93
	1.82	3.25	4.23	Watch
	1.71	3.31	5.17
	1.74	3.15	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.77)	3.23 ↑ (3.1)	4.62 (4.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Express
52.2%

Draw
28.1%

Mbarara City
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

29.2%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

23.4%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Express has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Mbarara City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Express than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Express that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mbarara City than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Express - Mbarara City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Kawawa A. ⚽,
27', 2 - 0, Basangwa R. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', 3 - 0, Ssenoga M. K. ⚽,
67', 4 - 0, Ssenoga M. K. ⚽,
71', 4 - 1, Eragu G. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Express won 2.

Recent performances by Express have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mbarara City is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Express is seen as the favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Express won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Express won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Express FC
Ugandan Super League
30.10.25	Bul - Express	0:0 ✺
23.10.25	Express - Kampala City Council	0:1 ✺
17.10.25	Uganda Revenue Authority SC - Express	1:1 ✺
02.10.25	Police - Express	2:1 ✺
26.09.25	Express - UPDF	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TLTLW
- Mbarara City FC
Ugandan Super League
01.11.25	Mbarara City - NEC FC	0:1 ✺
24.10.25	Kitara - Mbarara City	3:2 ✺
17.10.25	Mbarara City - Bul	1:1 ✺
03.10.25	Mbarara City - UPDF	0:1 ✺
26.09.25	Police - Mbarara City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
28.11.24	Express - Mbarara City	3:1
02.02.24	Mbarara City - Express	3:1
23.09.23	Express - Mbarara City	0:0
25.03.22	Mbarara City - Express	0:0
07.12.21	Express - Mbarara City	2:0
17.04.21	Express - Mbarara City	1:1
16.12.20	Mbarara City - Express	1:1

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