Match Info

MLS

Date: 25 June 2025, Wednesday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Frisco, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	FC Dallas		San Jose Earthquakes

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.5	2.55	Watch
	2.35	3.7	2.7
	2.62	3.7	2.52	Watch
	2.57	3.8	2.63
				Watch
	2.3	3.6	2.62
	2.65	3.63	2.57	Watch
	2.62	3.7	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.08)	3.66 ↓ (3.67)	2.59 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FC Dallas
37.4%

Draw
25.9%

San Jose Earthquakes
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

26.1%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.1%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FC Dallas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that FC Dallas's form might have worsened.

San Jose Earthquakes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Jose Earthquakes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FC Dallas than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for FC Dallas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Jose Earthquakes than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Jose Earthquakes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45%	25%	30%

FC Dallas - San Jose Earthquakes Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Dallas will win (votes: 9 - 45%). San Jose will win (votes: 6 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dallas: 23.2% – 66.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Dallas (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - San Jose (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Dallas (votes: 2 - 50%). San Jose (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paes M. (G) 18. Moore S. 4. Farfan M. 25. Ibeagha S. 22. Augusto A. 11. Julio Santos A. A. 20. Pedrinho 8. Lletget S. 6. Delgado P. 9. Musa P. 10. Acosta L.	18. Roberts R. (G) 26. Rodrigues 12. Romney D. 5. Munie D. 22. Jones D. 34. Leroux B. 6. Harkes I. 94. Vitor Costa 10. Espinoza C. 17. Martinez J. 9. Arango C.
Substitutes
5. Abubakar L. 30. Collodi M. (G) 23. Farrington L. 55. Kaick 77. Kamungo B. 7. Leo Chu 32. Norris N. 16. Ntsabeleng T. 51. Ramirez A.	11. Bouda O. 42. Daniel (G) 36. Edwards E. (G) 20. Fernandez N. 25. Floriani M. 19. Judd P. 14. Kaye M. 28. Kikanovic B. 7. Pellegrino A.
Coaches
Quill E.	Arena B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Musa P. ⚽, Acosta L. (A),
45+5', Julio Santos A. A. ↓, Kamungo B. ↑,
45+6', Munie D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
50', 1 - 1, Arango C. ⚽, Espinoza C. (A),
57', 1 - 2, Martinez J. ⚽, Espinoza C. (A), Arango C. (A2)
61', Lletget S. ↓, Kaick ↑,
61', Pedrinho ↓, Farrington L. ↑,
68', 2 - 2, Moore S. ⚽,
76', Harkes I. ↓, Kaye M. ↑,
76', Rodrigues ↓, Floriani M. ↑,
76', 2 - 3, Leroux B. ⚽,
79', Kaick 🟥,
80', Arango C. 🟨,
82', Martinez J. ↓, Judd P. ↑,
86', Ibeagha S. 🟥,
87', Farfan M. ↓, Abubakar L. ↑,
88', Arango C. ↓, Bouda O. ↑,
90+1', Kaye M. 🟨,
90+9', 2 - 4, Kaye M. ⚽, Jones D. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Dallas has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Dallas: Geovane Jesus (Knee Injury) Newman E. (Knee Injury) Pomykal P. (Knee Injury) Ramiro (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in San Jose: Buck N. (Knee Injury) Harkes I. (Red Card) Tsakiris N. (Lower-Body Injury) Wilson Valdez B. R. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in San Jose: Lopez H. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 4 matches, drew 11 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:27. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Dallas won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Dallas
MLS
14.06.25	Sporting Kansas City - FC Dallas	2:4 ✺
31.05.25	FC Dallas - Philadelphia Union	0:0 ✺
28.05.25	Cincinnati - FC Dallas	3:3 ✺
24.05.25	Seattle Sounders - FC Dallas	1:0 ✺
US Open Cup
21.05.25	New York Red Bulls - FC Dallas	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTTLL
- San Jose Earthquakes
MLS
13.06.25	Portland Timbers - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	St. Louis City - San Jose Earthquakes	2:1 ✺
28.05.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - San Jose Earthquakes	0:1 ✺
24.05.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Houston Dynamo	3:3 ✺
US Open Cup
20.05.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Portland Timbers	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
02.10.24	San Jose Earthquakes - FC Dallas	3:2
24.02.24	FC Dallas - San Jose Earthquakes	2:1
07.10.23	FC Dallas - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1
27.05.23	San Jose Earthquakes - FC Dallas	1:1
17.09.22	San Jose Earthquakes - FC Dallas	1:1
13.08.22	FC Dallas - San Jose Earthquakes	4:1
07.11.21	San Jose Earthquakes - FC Dallas	1:1

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