Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 16

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Faetano		Murata

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.05	2.4	Watch
	2.75	3.31	2.38	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.25
	2.83	3.56	2.3
	2.75	3.1	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.51)	3.24 ↓ (3.54)	2.34 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Faetano
33.2%

Draw
28%

Murata
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

26%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

24.9%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Faetano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Murata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Faetano than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Murata than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Faetano - Murata Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
86', 1 - 0, Elia G. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 0, Lenzu A. A. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Faetano won 2.

Faetano has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Murata is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Faetano won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:25. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Faetano won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.7:2.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Murata	4	1	0	3	4:10	-6	3
16	Faetano	4	0	2	2	1:9	-8	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Faetano
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
20.12.25	Tre Fiori - Faetano	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Faetano - Fiorentino	0:3 ✺
07.12.25	Domagnano - Faetano	4:1 ✺
30.11.25	Faetano - San Giovanni	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Juvenes-Dogana - Faetano	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWL
- SS Murata
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
20.12.25	Fiorentino - Murata	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Murata - Virtus	0:2 ✺
06.12.25	Tre Fiori - Murata	4:0 ✺
30.11.25	Murata - Pennarossa	1:2 ✺
San Marino Coppa Titano
26.11.25	Murata - La Fiorita	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Coppa Titano
22.10.25	Faetano - Murata	1:1
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
29.08.25	Murata - Faetano	0:2
30.04.25	Murata - Faetano	0:1
18.04.25	Murata - Faetano	2:2
20.01.24	Faetano - Murata	0:0
16.09.23	Murata - Faetano	5:0
26.04.23	Murata - Faetano	0:1

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