Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 11

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday


	Murata		Pennarossa

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.55	2.98
	1.98	3.58	3.11
	1.65	3.93	4.40	Watch
	1.97	3.5	3.25
	1.9	3.6	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.7)	3.63 ↓ (3.75)	3.4 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Murata
48%

Draw
25.1%

Pennarossa
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

24.3%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

23.6%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Murata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Murata's form might have worsened.

Pennarossa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Murata than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Murata, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pennarossa than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pennarossa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Murata - Pennarossa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Labas J. ⚽, Cirillo F. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Varrella G. ⚽, Domini T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
73', 1 - 2, Varrella G. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murata won 5.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Pennarossa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Murata is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Murata won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:12. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Murata won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:6. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Murata
San Marino Coppa Titano
26.11.25	Murata - La Fiorita	0:3 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
22.11.25	Tre Penne - Murata	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Murata - San Giovanni	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Cosmos - Murata	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Murata - Domagnano	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTTL
- SS Pennarossa
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
22.11.25	Pennarossa - La Fiorita	0:5 ✺
08.11.25	AC Libertas - Pennarossa	2:2 ✺
02.11.25	Pennarossa - San Marino Academy U22	3:1 ✺
25.10.25	Folgore - Pennarossa	3:0 ✺
San Marino Coppa Titano
21.10.25	Tre Fiori - Pennarossa	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
19.01.25	Pennarossa - Murata	0:4
31.08.24	Murata - Pennarossa	3:0
24.02.24	Pennarossa - Murata	0:3
05.11.23	Murata - Pennarossa	5:0
28.01.23	Pennarossa - Murata	2:3
11.09.22	Murata - Pennarossa	2:4
07.05.22	Murata - Pennarossa	1:2

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